Research on the impact of new energy demonstration city construction on green digital technology innovation
[Journal Article]LI Qiangyi, YANG Mian-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:Accelerating the iteration,updating,and deepened application of green digital technology is a crucial initiative for China to build new competitive advantages for the future,carrying profound significance.This study takes 283 cities in China from 2007 to 2022 as research samples and employs a difference-in-differences(DID)model to empirically examine the impact of the new energy demonstration city construction pilot policy on urban green key digital technology innovation.The results indicate that the construction of new energy demonstration cities can enhance the level of green digital technology innovation in pilot areas.Mechanism tests show that the construction primarily drives leaps in green digital technology innovation by increasing science and technology expenditures,strengthening environmental regulations,and improving technology accessibility.Heterogeneity tests further reveal that the promotional effect of the pilot policy is more pronounced in cities with lower administrative levels,abundant human capital,and non-resource-based economic structures.This research provides policy insights for exploring breakthroughs in green key digital technologies in the context of the new digital era.

A study on sustainable aviation fuel demand and carbon emissions forecasting in China based on deep learning LSTM model
[Journal Article]YANG Lishan, WANG Honglei-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:To address the critical challenges of uncertain market demand and ambiguous policy planning in China's sustainable aviation fuel(SAF)sector,this study proposes a novel framework that centers on national fuel requirements and policy intensity.By integrating historical data,we develop a fuel consumption forecasting and scenario analysis model based on the Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network,augmented with Monte Carlo simulations to quantify future uncertainties.The results show that despite continuous improvements in operational efficiency,growth in aviation traffic will drive a 46%increase in industry fuel consumption between 2025 and 2050,underscoring the limitation of relying solely on technological measures for emission reduction.Under an accelerated low-carbon scenario,SAF demand could reach 31.85 million tonnes(accounting for 50%of total fuel use)by 2050,contributing to a 92%reduction in carbon emissions relative to the business-as-usual case.In contrast,insufficient policy support would lead to a 24-percentage-point shortfall in emission abatement.Monte Carlo simulations further reveal substantial uncertainty in future demand while indicating a tangible potential for high-growth pathways.This study systematically outlines China's medium-to long-term SAF demand trajectory and associated emission reduction potential,offering critical quantitative evidence and decision support for setting science-based blending targets and designing phased industrial policies.

Analysis of the impact of artificial intelligence development on global energy demand
[Journal Article]WANG Yongzhong, LIU Dongsheng-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:The rapid development of artificial intelligence(AI)significantly impacts the global energy market.Based on the current status and trend of global AI technology development,this paper proposes that the impact of AI on energy demand is mainly reflected in the significant increase in energy consumption(data center and computing power),the use of big data and intelligent algorithms to improve energy utilization efficiency and reduce energy consumption,and promote the change of energy demand in emerging and traditional industries.It is expected that AI data centers'energy consumption will double in five years,concentrated in China and the U.S.,driving up electricity and renewable energy's share in the energy structure.To advance AI-energy coordinated development,governments should enhance energy supply,optimize energy structure,adjust AI industry layout,and deepen international cooperation to facilitate AI breakthroughs and cut energy use.

Digital competence,process innovation and organizational resilience of energy enterprises:A dynamic capability perspective
[Journal Article]LIU Yi, ZHAO Chen, LIU Manzhi-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:Against the backdrop of the wave of digitalization sweeping across industries and the complex and changing internal and external environments facing energy companies,exploring how to improve the organizational resilience of energy companies has become a key issue.Based on dynamic capabilities theory,using survey data from 454 energy enterprise managers,the study empirically explores the impact of digital capabilities on organizational resilience and examines the mediating role of process innovation and the moderating role of redundant resources.The study finds that:digital capability has a significant positive effect on organizational toughness(planned organizational toughness and adaptive organizational toughness)in energy firms;process innovation mediates the relationship between digital capability and adaptive organizational toughness;redundant resources weaken the positive relationship between digital capability and process innovation,and moderates the mediating role of process innovation between digital capability and organizational toughness,i.e.,the more the redundant resources of an organization,the more the digital capability is reduced through process innovation,the more the redundant resources of an organization are reduced through process innovation,the more the digital capability is increased through process innovation,and the more the redundant resources of an organization are increased.The more resources there are,the weaker the positive effect of digital capability on adaptive organizational resilience through process innovation.The findings of the study will provide a reference for energy enterprise managers to pay attention to digital capacity building and rationally allocate redundant resources,so as to give full play to the role of process innovation in improving organizational resilience and enhancing enterprises'ability to cope with complex environments.

Research on the impact of employees'native culture on pro-environmental behavior in high-energy-consuming enterprises
[Journal Article]JIN Yangyang, ZHENG Jiayi, LU Hui-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:In the context of deepening energy cooperation among the Belt and Road countries,high-energy-consuming enterprises,as key sectors of energy consumption and carbon emissions,face a critical issue in cross-cultural environmental management,namely the impact of employee cultural diversity on their pro-environmental behavior during international operations.Based on Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions Theory,this study empirically analyzes of 230 non-Chinese employees from the Belt and Road countries to investigate how employees'national culture affects their pro-environmental behavior.The findings reveal that:①employees'native cultural orientations such as collectivism,high uncertainty avoidance,femininity,and long-term orientation were significantly positively correlated with their pro-environmental values;②pro-environmental values significantly negatively affected the emergence of ethical dilemmas related to pro-environmental behavior;③ethical dilemmas of pro-environmental behavior significantly negatively affects employees'pro-environmental behavioral awareness;④ pro-environmental values and ethical dilemmas of pro-environmental behavior play a chain mediating role between employees'cultural orientations and their pro-environmental behavioral awareness.This research uncovers the micro-psychological pathway through which culture shapes pro-environmental behavioral awareness,providing theoretical support and practical implications for high-energy-consuming enterprises to implement cross-cultural environmental management and promote employees'voluntary pro-environmental behavior.

Impact of thesynergy between green certificate and carbon trading policies on the new power system
[Journal Article]CHI Yuanying, YAO Xingjia, WU Yuxi et al.-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:Building a new type of power system with new energy as the main body is a core measure for China to address climate change and achieve a green and low-carbon energy transformation.Based on the relevant data of the national power system from 2015 to 2023,the system dynamics method was employed to investigate the impact of the coordinated policy of green certificates and carbon trading on the key indicators of each module of the new power system through causal loop analysis and multi-scenario simulation.The research findings are as follows:① The green certificate policy can directly enhance the economic benefits of new energy projects through the issuance and trading of green certificates,promoting the transformation of the power source structure towards cleanliness;② The carbon trading policy focuses on the control of total carbon emissions and can force high-energy-consuming power generation enterprises to reduce emissions through carbon price signals;③ The effective coordination of green certificate policies and carbon trading policies can enhance the operational efficiency of the new power system and stabilize the supporting market of the new power system through price mechanisms,thereby promoting the healthy operation.The conclusion provides a theoretical basis and practical reference for promoting the formation of an efficient coordination mechanism between green certificate and carbon trading policies,thereby maximizing the clean,low-carbon,safe,and efficient transformation of the new power system.

Research on the configuration path of digital economy driving urban green transformation from the perspective of"dual carbon":Dynamic QCA analysis based on panel data from 296 cities
[Journal Article]ZHAO Hongmei, TIAN Yilin, YU Hui et al.-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:Urban green transformation is a critical link in achieving the "dual carbon" goals.As a key engine of economic growth,the digital economy has emerged as a significant driver for urban green transformation.Using the dynamic QCA method and taking 296 cities from 2013 to 2023 as examples,this study explores the configurational pathways through which the digital economy drives urban green transformation.Findings reveal:① Single antecedent conditions under the digital economy framework—such as information transmission,number of websites per 100 enterprises,e-commerce sales,total digital technology contract volume,and internet penetration rate—are not necessary conditions for urban green transformation.②The configurational pathways driving urban green transformation are summarized into three types:core industry-talent-market synergy-driven pathways,infrastructure-internet-driven pathways,and terminal penetration-platform substitution-driven pathways.③ The inter-group consistency level exhibits a parallel fluctuation trend,with the three pathways being applicable to digital economy mature regions,new infrastructure pioneer areas,and county-level economies with specialized industrial clusters,respectively.The results expand the theoretical perspective and framework of urban green transformation pathways,providing empirical evidence for leveraging the digital economy to advance urban green transformation.foundation.

A study on the mechanism of ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin of Shandong Province on high-quality corporate development
[Journal Article]MIAO Chenglin, CHEN Zhengyan, QIAN Jingjing-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:Against the backdrop of global sustainable development,exploring the impact mechanism of ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin on the high-quality development of regional enterprises holds significant practical value,providing scientific evidence for enhancing resource utilization efficiency,promoting green transformation,and optimizing economic structure.Using data from A-share listed companies in nine cities of Shandong Province from 2011 to 2022,this paper applies a two-way fixed-effects model to verify the positive effect of ecological protection on corporate high-quality development and incorporates environmental attention as a moderating variable to analyze its intrinsic mechanism.Empirical results show that ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin of Shandong Province significantly promotes high-quality corporate development,with environmental attention playing a critical moderating role in this process.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive impact of ecological protection on high-quality development is more pronounced in non-state-owned and heavily polluting enterprises.Based on the empirical analysis,the paper provides relevant policy recommendations,offering empirical evidence to support ecological protection and high-quality development in Shandong's Yellow River Basin.

The evolution of research themes and identification of frontiers in global energy transition studies:A text-based LDA-LSTM hybrid modeling approach
[Journal Article]FAN Kun, GUO Pibin, ZOU Tong et al.-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:Facing the severe situation of global climate change,the urgency and strategic significance of energy transition have become increasingly apparent.Numerous academic publications on energy transition contain rich information on policy evolution,technological innovation pathways,and strategic opportunities.How to systematically extract their core themes and evolutionary patterns remains a scientific problem that needs to be addressed.By conducting a systematic analysis of the global academic literature on energy transition and using a text-based LDA-LSTM hybrid modeling approach,the core research themes can be identified and their development trends projected over the next twelve periods.Based on the predicted growth rates and volatility characteristics,the ten themes are categorized into three levels:high-impact and high-urgency,medium-growth with strategic importance,and slow-growth long-term strategy.Among 3,478 high-quality publications,ten core themes were identified,covering technological strategies,economic models,policy systems,and governance frameworks related to energy transition.The three levels reflect different strategic dimensions of energy transition.Research on policy framework design,renewable energy technology transformation,and their synergistic advancement is urgent;research on greenhouse gas emissions,energy consumption,renewable energy,and economic growth shows medium growth;studies on energy efficiency,transition challenges,and China's energy transition are already at a mature stage.The conclusions of this study hold important theoretical and practical significance for promoting the low-carbon transformation of global energy systems and provide data-driven scientific evidence for policymakers,academics,and industry stakeholders to explore the complexities of energy transition.

A review of text mining applications in coal mineaccident analysis
[Journal Article]TAN Xuhong, LIU Mingming, MA He et al.-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:As a key technology for big data analysis,text mining has been increasingly applied in coal mine accident research in recent years,providing methodological support for accident cause identification and risk prevention.To clarify the research progress in coal mine accident analysis,this study systematically reviews and synthesizes the development and current state of text mining applications in this field,assessing various analytical approaches and models used for identifying accident causes and preventing risks.First,the concept of coal mine accident analysis is defined.The scope of the analysis is then determined by retrieving relevant literature based on document types,such as journal articles and dissertations,and combining that with their funding support status.Then,the general research process of text mining in the context of coal mine accidents is outlined,with a focus on reviewing applications across three themes:cause identification of coal mine accidents based on text features,discovery of latent knowledge in accidents using topic models,and analytical models for accidents based on multi-method integration.The review indicates that a fundamental theoretical framework has been established in this field,yet significant limitations remain in areas such as data fusion,semantic depth,and dynamic early warning.Therefore,future work should focus on developing large language models with domain adaptation,advancing technologies for collaborative analysis of multimodal data,and building intelligent early-warning systems with real-time reasoning capabilities.These developments will facilitate a transition in coal mine safety management from post-event statistics to pre-incident warning,enabling more precise and intelligent safety decision-making.

Government regulation and emission-reduction blocking effects under carbon market expansion
[Journal Article]WANG Bo, ZHANG Jiayuan, YAN Xiaoqing et al.-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:This paper constructs a multi-agent game model involving the government,power generation enterprises,and electricity-consuming enterprises to systematically reveal the interconnected logic among corporate green technology investment,product pricing,and carbon trading behaviors in the carbon market.It further analyzes the potential blockage effect that may arise during carbon market expansion and elucidates how emission intensity and technical parameters jointly shape the evolutionary mechanism of total system emissions.The research indicates that corporate green technology investment in the carbon market is significantly influenced by key parameters such as carbon emission intensity,green technology investment efficiency,and investment costs.Investment strategies display a clear strategic substitutability,meaning that an increase in green technology investment by one enterprise may inhibit the investment motivation of another,leading to free-riding behavior.Improvements in technological efficiency can mitigate this blockage effect.Corporate carbon trading behaviors exhibit structured variations with changes in emission intensity and investment costs,and trading strategies adjust according to their emission intensity and green technology investment characteristics.Numerical examples further demonstrate that the widening gap in emission intensity between upstream and downstream enterprises significantly influences the intensity of the blockage effect,thereby reshaping the evolutionary path of total system emissions.

Feasibility and applicability assessment of green low-carbon technologies in multiple scenarios:A Case Study of ultra-high voltage Transformation Projects
[Journal Article]XU Yanzhao, TANG Baojun, XU Peiyun et al.-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:The development of a novel energy supply and consumption system centered on ultra-high voltage(UHV)transmission and transformation project represents a critical strategy for enhancing the safety and resilience of China's emerging power infrastructure.Under increasingly stringent carbon emission policies,ultra-high voltage projects are proactively exploring the potential for green and low-carbon systems,aiming to drive carbon reduction throughout their entire lifecycle through the coordinated application of diverse green and low-carbon technologies.This study focuses on UHV transformation projects as a case study to establish a comprehensive evaluation framework that integrates the entropy weight TOPSIS method for objective assessment with questionnaire-based subjective evaluation.The framework is applied to analyze the technical feasibility of 40 advanced green and low-carbon technologies with potential for engineering application.Furthermore,the study accounts for complex variations in climate,geography,and resource endowments by conducting a multi-scenario assessment of technical adaptability.The findings reveal that,regarding feasibility,technologies such as recycled concrete and electric arc furnace steel during the material production and manufacturing phase;passive building envelopes,prefabricated units,during the construction phase;lithium-ion batteries and braking energy recovery systems in transportation;and photovoltaic power generation alongside intelligent ventilation systems during operation demonstrate superior performance across both objective and subjective metrics.These technologies are therefore recommended for prioritized implementation.Regarding scenario adaptability,waste heat power generation,absorption cooling,and intelligent ventilation systems can be implemented universally across all regions due to their high energy efficiency,stable operational performance,and resilience to climatic and resource variability.In contrast,climate-sensitive technologies—such as photovoltaic power generation,solar thermal power generation,wind power generation,and solar cooling—should be prioritized in areas with favorable resource endowments to optimize emission reduction outcomes and economic viability.This study provides decision-making support for the promotion and deployment of green and low-carbon technologies in ultra-high voltage transformation projects a research foundation for the integrated optimization of low-carbon,economic,and reliable performance throughout the project lifecycle.

The influence of coal miners'safety attitudes on their safety behavior under the framework of dual attitude model theory
[Journal Article]WANG Tianyu, LI Jizu-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:To improve the safety behavior level of coal miners,explore the internal connection between implicit and explicit safety attitudes and their impact on safety behavior,and promote the effective synergy between the two,it takes coal miners as the research objects.Explicit safety attitudes and safety behaviors of coal miners are evaluated using the Explicit Safety Attitude Scale and the Safety Behavior Scale;meanwhile,the Single-Category Implicit Association Test(SC-IAT),a psychological measurement tool,is adopted to measure the implicit safety attitudes of coal miners.The analysis results based on 109 valid data show that:the IAT effect of coal miners'implicit safety attitudes is very strong,showing positive implicit safety attitudes;however,the correlation between implicit and explicit safety attitudes is low,which indicates that there may be a certain dissociation phenomenon between the two attitudes in the coal miner group;explicit safety attitudes have a significant positive effect on the safety behavior of coal miners,while the correlation between implicit safety attitudes and safety behavior is relatively weak,indicating that the direct impact of implicit attitudes on the safety behavior of coal miners is relatively limited.

How does new quality productivity empower the enhancement of water resource welfare performance?A dynamic QCA analysis based on provincial panel data
[Journal Article]WANG Xiangqian, CHEN Shuo, JIN Huayi-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:The improvement of water resource welfare performance is of great significance for enhancing people's wellbeing and promoting the sustainable development of the economy.This study employs panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2012-2023 to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of new-type productive forces and water resource welfare performance.It further utilizes dynamic QCA methods to reveal the configuration pathways and operational mechanisms through which new-type productive forces drive improvements in water resource welfare performance.The study finds:① No single factor constitutes a necessary condition for enhancing water resource welfare performance,but the necessity of factors such as innovation productivity and technological productivity is gradually becoming apparent;② Five configuration pathways exist for high water resource welfare performance,which can be categorized into innovation-driven,technology-driven,and innovation-industry-digital synergy-driven types,low water resource welfare performance is constrained by the absence of core factors such as innovation,technology,and digital industries;③Significant regional variations exist in high-performance pathways:Eastern regions predominantly follow"innovation+industrial-digital synergy,"while Central and Western regions emphasize"innovation-driven"and"resource+digital industry synergy"approaches,with some pathways exhibiting factor substitution effects;④ No significant temporal effects were observed across configurations,though consistency levels for certain pathways fluctuated with economic restructuring and policy implementation.This study reveals diverse pathways through which new-quality productive forces empower water resource welfare performance,providing empirical support for regions to formulate tailored policies based on local conditions.

Research on the configuration paths of low-carbon transition in energy-intensive manufacturing enterprises from the perspective of resource orchestration
[Journal Article]WANG Yiqing, WU Peng-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:Under the background of the"dual carbon"goals,the low-carbon transition of energy-intensive manufacturing enterprises has become an important issue in promoting high-quality development.However,existing research mostly focuses on static perspectives and lacks a systematic exploration of the dynamic evolution mechanism throughout the entire process of low-carbon transition.Based on the resource orchestration theory,this paper constructs an analytical framework that includes the transition foundation,transition resources,and transition environment.It divides the low-carbon transition of enterprises into three stages:initial,development,and maturity.Using a sample of listed energy-intensive manufacturing companies in 2022 and applying qualitative comparative analysis,this study identifies the configuration paths that drive high-level low-carbon transition in a phased manner and reveals their cross-stage evolution patterns.The research finds that no single factor constitutes a necessary condition for low-carbon transition;instead,the effectiveness of the transition depends on the synergistic interaction of multiple elements.The driving paths at different stages show significant differences:the initial stage is dominated by external pressures;the development stage differentiates into three types of paths-subject-driven,resource-driven,and hybrid-driven;while the maturity stage shifts to a transition model dominated by internal capabilities and internal-external coordination.Cross-stage comparisons further indicate that the low-carbon transition of enterprises exhibits dynamic characteristics,evolving from being driven by external regulations to the construction of endogenous capabilities,and from single dependency to multi-dimensional synergy.

Analysis and prospect of technical pathways for full-process clean energy substitution in coal mining production
[Journal Article]HAO Shaojie, ZHANG Qi, WANG Dingding et al.-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:Under the dual constraints of China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and the imperative of energy security,clean energy substitution in coal-production processes has emerged as a critical lever for the green transition of the coal industry.In response to recent policy guidance from the national energy authority on integrating coal with renewable energy,this study focuses on the entire coal-mine production chain:excavation,ventilation,transportation,and coal preparation.It systematically characterizes their energy-use structures and key load profiles,synthesizes major technological pathways including electrification retrofits,end-use fuel switching,and energy-efficiency improvements,and further proposes an implementable portfolio of technical solutions from a systems-integration perspective,encompassing on-site renewable energy deployment,and integrated energy microgrids.In addition,accounting for heterogeneity across mining areas in terms of resource endowments,load rigidity,infrastructure readiness,and safety-environmental boundary conditions,this study develops a scenario-based analytical framework.Three representative scenarios are selected:a transportation-dominated scenario for open-pit mines,a ventilation-driven underground mining scenario characterized by rigid safety-critical loads,and a coal-preparation cluster scenario featuring site-level electricity-heat coupling.For each scenario,we clarify the prioritization of clean substitution measures and the key engineering emphases for practical deployment.Overall,the findings suggest that clean energy substitution in coal-mining areas should be anchored in safety and reliability,driven by electrification and renewable electricity substitution,and enabled by source-grid-load-storage coordination and fine-grained operational dispatch,thereby facilitating the transition of mining areas from single-purpose coal-production units toward multi-energy complementary low-carbon energy systems.

Research on the collaborative operation mode and market price incentive mechanism for the power industry chain
[Journal Article]TAN Qingbo, XING Da, ZHAO Erdong et al.-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:The operation of the power industry chain is not a simple combination of individual planning and operation for each link in the chain,nor a simple synthesis of planning and operation by regions.Instead,it requires the coordinated operation of wind power,solar power,thermal power,hydro power and energy storage sources,the coordinated operation of inter-regional,inter-provincial and provincial power transmission and distribution networks,and the coordinated operation of cooling,heating,electricity,gas and hydrogen energy consumption.It is necessary to break through the respective interest demands of power generators,heating companies,gas companies,power grid companies and energy storage companies.Proceeding from economic,environmental and social perspectives,we should eliminate the barriers of fragmentation of various energy types in terms of market,system and region,and improve the efficiency of comprehensive energy resources.Wind and solar power are characterized by randomness,instantaneousness and intermittency,which need to be regulated collaboratively by thermal power,hydropower,energy storage and demand response,i.e.,the provision of ancillary services.However,this will also increase the start-stop and ramping costs of regulating power sources.Therefore,a market mechanism should be established to ensure the reasonable allocation of ancillary service costs between power generation enterprises without regulation capacity and end-users.Both the upstream side of the power grid(i.e.,new energy power generation)and the downstream side(i.e.,user electricity consumption)are featured by bilateral randomness.It is essential to design an electricity price chain among new energy power generation,power grids and the user side,so as to promote the accurate absorption of new energy by users and realize the investment optimization of power generation and power grids through peak shaving and valley filling on the user side.

The dual-edged sword effect of the energy internet on energy transition:A nonlinear perspective
[Journal Article]JIA Kunjiao, HE Lingyun, WANG Xin et al.-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:Energy internet is a critical enabler of energy transition,pivotal for achieving a low-carbon,efficient,and sustainable energy system.Based on panel data from 31 Chinese provinces(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)spanning 2010 to 2022,this study constructs an energy internet index and a low-carbon energy consumption structure index.A generalized additive model is employed to empirically examine the nonlinear impact of energy internet on energy transition,alongside the moderating roles of environmental regulation and government support.The findings reveal a significant nonlinear relationship between energy internet and energy transition:energy internet exerts a strong promoting effect at the initial stage,shifts to a suppressive effect at medium levels,and transitions to a diminishing marginal promoting effect at higher levels of development.Environment regulation demonstrates an inverted U-shaped moderating effect on the energy internet-energy txansition relationship,while government support serve as a critical threshold mechanism.Accordingly,policy recommendations are proposed from the perspectives of phased development and multi-stakeholder coordination.

Prospects for the coal industry in the 15th Five-Year Plan period
[Journal Article]ZHU Shuancheng, DU like, QIN Rongjun et al.-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:This paper systematically reviews the development of China's coal industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,including significant growth in production,imports,consumption,and fluctuating economic performance.It analyzes the macro-environmental changes facing the industry in the "15th Five-Year Plan" era,such as economic deceleration,demographic shifts,ecological constraints,technological advancements,and the rapid replacement of coal by new energy sources.The study points out that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period,the coal industry will enter a phase of profound transformation,featuring such trends as a prominent role in providing basic energy security,a more distinct westward shift in supply distribution,a clear trend of peak coal consumption,and clean and low-carbon utilization emerging as a key focus of development.In response to current oversupply and widespread corporate losses,it is recommended that the industry establish a supply-side response mechanism and build a cost-oriented production system to ensure energy security while advancing high-quality transformation.

Medium and long-term forecast of hydrogen energy demand for China's road transportation
[Journal Article]WANG Jianliang, WANG Anli, FAN Jingjing-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:As the world's largest energy consumer and carbon emitter,the low-carbon transition of the road transportation sector is critical to China's achievement of its "dual carbon" goals.Hydrogen energy,as a clean and efficient energy carrier,holds significant application potential in the road transportation sector,particularly in scenarios such as heavy-duty freight,public transport,and private mobility.This study employs a system dynamics approach to forecast the medium-and long-term hydrogen energy demand in China's road transportation sector under multiple scenarios.The results indicate that hydrogen demand in China's road transportation sector shows an overall upward trend.By 2050,the total hydrogen demand is projected to range between 39.0 and 59.2 million tons(Mt),and by 2060,total hydrogen consumption is expected to reach between 55.8 and 84.9 mt.Among the four scenarios,this paper recommends the comprehensive policy scenario(CP)combining transport structure and energy efficiency improvements.Under this scenario,hydrogen demand in 2060 is projected to be 65.8 mt,of which hydrogen demand for hydrogen-powered buses,private vehicles,and heavy-duty trucks would be 0.9 mt,6.7 mt,and 58.2 mt,respectively.This study provides robust data support and decision-making insights for the development of hydrogen energy in China's road transportation sector.