Medium and long-term forecast of hydrogen energy demand for China's road transportation

WANG Jianliang; WANG Anli; FAN Jingjing

doi:10.13202/j.cnki.cer.2026.01.05

Abstract：As the world's largest energy consumer and carbon emitter,the low-carbon transition of the road transportation sector is critical to China's achievement of its "dual carbon" goals.Hydrogen energy,as a clean and efficient energy carrier,holds significant application potential in the road transportation sector,particularly in scenarios such as heavy-duty freight,public transport,and private mobility.This study employs a system dynamics approach to forecast the medium-and long-term hydrogen energy demand in China's road transportation sector under multiple scenarios.The results indicate that hydrogen demand in China's road transportation sector shows an overall upward trend.By 2050,the total hydrogen demand is projected to range between 39.0 and 59.2 million tons(Mt),and by 2060,total hydrogen consumption is expected to reach between 55.8 and 84.9 mt.Among the four scenarios,this paper recommends the comprehensive policy scenario(CP)combining transport structure and energy efficiency improvements.Under this scenario,hydrogen demand in 2060 is projected to be 65.8 mt,of which hydrogen demand for hydrogen-powered buses,private vehicles,and heavy-duty trucks would be 0.9 mt,6.7 mt,and 58.2 mt,respectively.This study provides robust data support and decision-making insights for the development of hydrogen energy in China's road transportation sector.