Research on the technological emission reduction potential andtrend of China's steel industry based on the mas method
[Journal Article]LIAO Jianbo, ZHAO Lutao, LI Zhaoyuan et al.-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:The global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions has become a major challenge for the international community.The steel industry,as a key source of emissions,contributes 7%to 9%of global CO2 emissions.The effectiveness of its emission reduction efforts is crucial to the climate governance process.Technological upgrading has become the core path to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions.This study,based on the multi-agent system approach,integrates the steel product production,energy consumption,and CO2 emission modules,designs three different types of enterprise entities with different technology penetration rates,and builds a complex system simulation model for the "steel production-energy consumption-carbon emission" of the Chinese steel industry.It systematically analyzes the impact of different technology penetration rates on the energy consumption and carbon emissions of steel enterprises and predicts the development trends of energy consumption and carbon emissions of different types of steel enterprises.The research shows that by 2050,the coal consumption of the benchmark enterprise,the low penetration rate enterprise,and the high penetration rate enterprise will be reduced to approximately 393 million GJ,355 million GJ,and 318 million GJ;CO2 emissions will be reduced to about 29 million tons,23 million tons,and 17 million tons.The improvement of the technological penetration rate of steel enterprises can significantly increase the coal savings and CO2 emission reductions.Among the six emission reduction technologies,the recovery technology of the furnace gas sensible heat has the highest emission reduction efficiency and should be promoted as a priority;the high blast furnace coal injection technology and the high blast furnace top pressure difference power generation technology have relatively lower emission reduction efficiency and should accelerate the technological transformation.Through comparative analysis,it provides a decision-making basis for the selection and promotion of emission reduction technologies in the steel industry.

Multi-scale fusion of multi-source data with different frequencies:A Transformer-based study on coal demand prediction
[Journal Article]SHAO Feng, FENG Yu, SHEN Haonan et al.-Coal Economic Research2026, No.01

Abstract:Accurately predicting coal demand is crucial for ensuring national energy security,stabilizing market prices,and formulating macroeconomic policies.However,numerous factors influence coal demand,and the relevant data often originates from different departments with varied collection frequencies such as daily,ten-day,and monthly,posing significant challenges to traditional forecasting models.To address this issue,this paper proposes a deep learning model that integrates multi-frequency features—the Multi-Frequency Time-series Transformer(MFT-Former)—for coal demand prediction.The method first employs a systematic data processing pipeline to clean,align,and resample multi-source heterogeneous raw data into three time-synchronized high-,medium-,and low-frequency feature matrices.These three matrices are then used as parallel inputs and fed into a specially designed multi-input Transformer network.This network contains three independent encoder branches that capture temporal dependency patterns at their respective frequencies,and integrates the extracted deep features through a fusion layer to achieve future coal demand prediction.Using a real dataset containing multiple economic and industry indicators,this paper evaluates the model's predictive performance with the task of forecasting the next six months'demand based on data from the past twelve months.Experimental results show that the MFT-Former model can effectively integrate information from different time scales,achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 6.24%on the test set,demonstrating the method's effectiveness and accuracy in handling complex,multi-frequency time series forecasting problems.

Research on emergency response and supply preservation measures of new power systems under extreme weather conditions
[Journal Article]HUANG Rong, LIANG Tian, ZHOU Yanke et al.-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:With the increase in demand for energy structure transformation and low-carbon development in China,the construction of a new type of power system has become the key to realizing sustainable development.The article addresses the emergency response and supply preservation measures of the new type of power system under extreme weather conditions.First,the structure of the new type of power system and the challenges it faces are outlined,especially the impacts of extreme weather events on power supply,grid facilities,load characteristics,and system regulation capabilities.Then,the existing supply preservation measures are analyzed,including policy support,market mechanisms,peaking capacity,and risk assessment and emergency management.The article further discusses the identification and assessment of extreme weather risks,Through vulnerability analysis and recovery time analysis,a resilience assessment framework is established and quantitative resilience indicators are proposed.Finally,strategies put forward to improve the resilience and capacity of the new power system,in order to enhance its stability and reliability under extreme weather conditions.

Multi-dimensional technical and economic evaluation system of new distribution system construction scheme
[Journal Article]LI Weiwei, HUO Huijuan, XIN Cheng et al.-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:With the development of society and economy and the improvement of people's living standards,the scale and structure of distribution networks have also gradually expanded and become more complex.At the same time,due to the substantial promotion of the"dual carbon" goal and the acceleration of the energy transition process,the shape and function of new distribution systems will undergo major changes.Reconstructing the comprehensive evaluation index system of distribution network planning can provide more comprehensive and detailed decision-making basis and reference support for distribution networks.Firstly,the Delphi method is effectively used to aggregate the expert's professional judgment in the field,and finally 25 indicators are determined from the economic efficiency,power supply capacity,network structure,equipment level,environmental protection and intelligent level.Secondly,the relative importance of each indicator in the overall evaluation is quantified by the analytic hierarchy process,thereby determining the weight of the indicators.Finally,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the overall method,and the comprehensive evaluation value is obtained,enabling comparisons and selection of different schemes.

Power grid cost optimization considering the gridconnection of renewable energy
[Journal Article]LI Chenguang, CHAI Zhanjun, ZHANG Jiahui et al.-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:Large-scale renewable energy integration has become an imperative under the"Dual Carbon" targets.The impact of renewable energy integration on power system operating costs arises from two key factors:renewable energy output variability and capacity expansion.To investigate these effects,this study first simulates power system operations under three scenarios:baseline,energy storage-assisted peak shaving,and integrated wind-PV-storage coordination.Subsequently,a Graver 6-node test system is employed for simulation analysis to examine cost variations under increasing renewable volatility and capacity growth.The findings demonstrate that renewable output variability elevates total system costs and amplifies cost fluctuations through environmental externalities and curtailment penalties.The cost impact of capacity expansion is constrained by peak-shaving strategies and penetration levels.For regions in early-stage renewable integration,hybrid energy storage with wind-PV complementarity should be prioritized for peak regulation.In rapidly developing areas,annual renewable capacity growth should be capped at 80%of baseline values while maintaining this coordinated approach.

An analysis of the impact effect of new-quality productivity on carbon emission efficiency in the Yellow River basin
[Journal Article]YAO Xiaojian, ZHANG Yifan-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:New-quality productivity serves as a crucial driver for promoting high-quality development and injecting new impetus into achieving the"dual carbon" goals and regional sustainable development.Based on panel data from 99 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2012 to 2023,this study measures the level of new-quality productivity using the entropy method.Through constructing linear regression models,mediation effect models,moderation effect models,and threshold effect models,it empirically analyzes the impact mechanism of new-quality productivity on carbon emission efficiency in the Yellow River Basin.The research findings include:①New-quality productivity significantly promotes carbon emission efficiency;② The impact of new-quality productivity on carbon emission efficiency exhibits regional heterogeneity,showing a gradient enhancement from downstream to midstream and upstream cities;③ New-quality productivity enhances carbon emission efficiency by driving green technology innovation,and demonstrates a dual-threshold effect based on green technology innovation,with an increasing effect pattern;④ New-quality productivity plays a significant positive moderating role in the process influencing carbon emission efficiency.

Study on the impact mechanism of the environmental protection Fee-to-Tax reform and corporate dual synergy in the energy industry
[Journal Article]WANG Xiaopeng, ZHANG Yu-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:The synergistic digitalization-greening transformation is essential for cultivating new quality productive forces and achieving high-quality development.Using data from A-share listed energy companies(2012-2023),this study employs a difference-in-differences model to examine the effects of China's 2018 environmental fee-to-tax reform on enterprises'synergistic transformation.The findings reveal that the policy significantly promotes synergistic transformation across all energy enterprises.Mechanism analysis shows that financing constraints play a masking role—while the policy promotes transformation,it simultaneously exacerbates financing constraints through increased compliance costs,partially offsetting positive effects.Information disclosure quality positively moderates the relationship,with high-quality disclosure significantly enhancing policy effectiveness.Heterogeneity analysis reveals structural differences.By enterprise type,the policy increases renewable energy enterprises' synergistic transformation by 4.2%more than traditional energy enterprises.Regionally,effects are significant only in eastern regions,reflecting unbalanced regional development.By ownership,effects are stronger for non-state-owned enterprises,indicating marketization's influence on policy sensitivity.This study expands environmental policy research from a synergistic digitalization-greening perspective,identifies financing constraints'masking effects and information disclosure's moderating role,and provides empirical evidence for differentiated policymaking.The findings offer important implications for optimizing environmental tax design and promoting enterprises'synergistic transformation.

Analysis of the impact of new energy policies on alleviating energy poverty mechanisms:A quasi-natural experiment based on the west-to-east gas transmission project
[Journal Article]LIN Xiaole, ZHENG Kexin-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:Energy plays an irreplaceable and important role as the foundation of economic development,the guarantee of residents' life and the cornerstone of social stability.However,energy poverty is still a major problem in the context of common prosperity in China.Exploring the effect of new energy policies on energy poverty is of great significance in solving the problem of energy poverty.Therefore,based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2013 to 2023,this paper uses the double-difference method to explore the effect of new energy policies on energy poverty based on the West-East Natural Gas Transmission Project.The study shows that the new energy policy can effectively alleviate energy poverty,a conclusion that remains valid after a series of placebo tests and robustness tests.Further analysis reveals that new energy policies can indirectly alleviate energy poverty by improving energy accessibility and energy efficiency.In the context of the steady progress of the West-East Natural Gas Pipeline Project and the expanding scope of new energy policies,this paper helps to scientifically identify the effects and mechanisms between new energy policies and the alleviate of energy poverty,and to promote the solution of the energy poverty problem.

Research on the impact of green finance on carbon emission intensity in Three Northeastern Provinces of China:Based on the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation
[Journal Article]YANG Lei, LI Yueyan-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:This paper,based on panel data from 34 prefecture level cities in Three Northeastern Provinces of China from 2012 to 2022,uses a mediation effect model to empirically explore the impact of green finance on carbon emission intensity in the region from the dual perspectives of industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation.The results show that:① Green finance has a significant negative impact on carbon emission intensity in three Northeastern provinces of China,and this effect is robust.② Green finance can indirectly reduce carbon emission intensity through industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation.③ Green finance's effect varies regionally,its negative correlation with carbon emission intensity is the stronger in economically underdeveloped areas.Based on this,the paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions in terms of enhancing the service capacity of green finance,actively promoting industrial structure upgrading,vigorously encouraging green technological innovation,and enriching green financial products and services.

A study on the driving effect of green finance development on ESG performance of energy enterprises under carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals
[Journal Article]MENG Jin, ZHENG Rui-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:Driven by the Carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals,energy enterprises,as core entities with high energy consumption and high carbon emissions,have their ESG performance become a key evaluation dimension for green transformation.Based on the data of A-share listed companies in China's energy industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2011 to 2023,this paper explores the impact of green finance development on the ESG performance of energy enterprises.The findings are as follows:①The development of green finance significantly improves the ESG performance of energy enterprises;② The development of green finance enhances the ESG performance of energy enterprises through three intermediary paths:Green innovation,alleviation of financing constraints,and improvement in the quality of environmental information disclosure;③ Executives' green cognition has a positive moderating effect on the ESG improvement effect of green finance;④ Heterogeneity analysis shows that the ESG enabling effect of green finance development is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises,high-carbon emission industries,and highly leveraged enterprises.

Can green finance policies inhibit firms'total factor productivity?Empirical evidence from new energy enterprises
[Journal Article]YIN Kexin, YANG Ruihan-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:As a crucial driving force for achieving the "dual carbon" goals,green financial policies play a significant role in promoting high-quality enterprise development.This study examines the impact of green financial policies on the total factor productivity(TFP)of new energy enterprises using a sample of 190 A-share listed new energy companies in China from 2009 to 2023.The results indicate that green financial policies significantly inhibit the TFP of new energy enterprises.Through the mediating variable of carbon emissions,a pathway of "policy → emission reduction cost crowding-out/technological lag → TFP suppression" is formed,affecting the TFP of new energy enterprises.This effect is more pronounced in private enterprises,enterprises in the eastern region,and high-tech enterprises.The findings provide support for the construction of differentiated green financial policies.Recommendations include optimizing the allocation of green financial resources,establishing differentiated emission reduction standards and support policies,and strengthening the demonstrative role of state-owned enterprises in green transformation,thereby achieving long-term synergy between efficiency and environmental sustainability.

The impact of the digital economy on high-quality economic development in the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality
[Journal Article]ZHAO Wenqi, HUANG Dongjing-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:The digital economy represented by the Internet,cloud computing and big data has provided new opportunities for China's economic development,and has become an important driving force for achieving the dual carbon goals and high-quality economic development.By analyzing panel data of 30 Chinese provinces throughout the 2013-2022 period,a mediation model is constructed.Firstly,a fixed effects model is used to analyze the inherent logical relationship between the digital economy and high-quality development.Then,we create a mediation effect model to explore the mediating influence of the carbon emission intensity existing between them.The findings show that the digital economy significantly contributes to the high-quality development of the economy.The mediating effect shows that reducing carbon emission intensity can strengthen the impact of the digital economy on the level of high-quality economic development.Therefore,we should continue to promote the development of the digital economy,advance carbon reduction goals through open information and technology sharing,and achieve high-quality economic transformation and development.

Research on ecological environment management practices and green transition pathways in mining areas
[Journal Article]CUI Jie, HUANG Yuejun, LEI Mingxing et al.-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:The ecological environment management of coal mining areas is a critical component of the green and low-carbon transformation of the coal industry.This paper primarily investigates the practical approaches to ecological environment governance in coal mining regions and the pathways for green transformation.It analyzes the developmental trends of policies related to ecological environment management in coal mining areas.The study elucidates the challenges faced in ecological governance,including an imperfect policy framework,technological bottlenecks,regional development imbalances,and insufficient motivation for enterprise participation.It summarizes the ecological management experiences across different types of mines,such as underground,open-pit,and those undergoing closure or active production.The paper proposes six major pathways for green and low-carbon development transformation:strengthening core green technologies,establishing an ecological governance industry within mining areas,advancing data-driven ecological management,developing circular utilization models in mining regions,constructing evaluation and assessment systems for ecological governance,and establishing specialized funds and incentive policies.These insights provide vital theoretical guidance and practical references for coal enterprises to promote ecological environment management and industrial transformation.

The impact of ESG disclosure on corporate performance in energy enterprises:An empirical deconstruction based on the dynamic adaptation of green technological innovation and environmental regulation
[Journal Article]FU Qiannan, SUN Yiran-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:This study examines the relationship between ESG disclosure and corporate performance among A-share listed energy companies in China from 2014 to 2024.The findings reveal that:① ESG disclosure has a significantly positive impact on corporate performance;② Green technological innovation plays a partial mediating role in the relationship between ESG disclosure and corporate performance;③ Environmental regulation positively moderates the effect of ESG disclosure on corporate performance;④ The dynamic adaptation of environmental regulation and green technological innovation significantly strengthens the promoting effect of ESG disclosure on corporate performance by empowering the transformation of innovation outcomes;⑤ The enhancement effect of ESG information disclosure on corporate performance is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises compared to state-owned enterprises;within the energy sector,new energy companies demonstrate a stronger ESG disclosure performance improvement effect than traditional energy enterprises.

The impact of digital transformation on the sustainable development performance of enterprises:From the perspective of dynamic capability theory
[Journal Article]HUANG Li, NIU Tingting, YIN Shichen-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:As the digital economy expands exponentially,digital transformation is redefining pathways to sustainable development.Grounded in dynamic capability theory,this study develops a conceptual framework linking'digital transformation-dynamic capability enhancement-corporate sustainable development performance'.Using a sample of A-share listed companies in China(2013-2023),we empirically examine the impact of digital transformation on corporate sustainability performance.Our findings indicate that digital transformation significantly enhances sustainable development performance,a result robust to alternative measures,exclusion of anomalous years,and one-period lagged specifications.Mechanism analysis reveals that digital transformation improves sustainability performance through three channels:Reduce the risk level of enterprises;Advancing green technological innovation;Optimising resource allocation efficiency.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the promoting effect of digital transformation on the sustainable development performance of enterprises varies significantly among different industries and provinces.This research contributes novel empirical evidence on micro-level mechanisms connecting digital transformation to corporate sustainability,while providing theoretical and policy implications for governments formulating digital economy strategies and firms pursuing sustainable practices;robustness test;Mechanism analysis robust test;mechanism of aetior.

Impact of green credit on carbon emissions:Effects,mechanisms and regional heterogeneity
[Journal Article]WEI Jinhong, LI Linyi, JIANG Xuehai et al.-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:Studying the impact of green credit on carbon emissions is of great significance for understanding the mechanism of green credit in the transformation of low-carbon economy,promoting sustainable economic development,and achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Based on the panel data of 30 provincial administrative regions in China(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2013 to 2022,this paper conducts empirical tests by constructing a two-way fixed effect model,a dynamic panel model and a mediation effect model,and deeply studies the impact of green credit on carbon emission intensity and its heterogeneous characteristics.The results show that:① Green credit has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity,and this result is still valid in the robustness test of replacing the core explanatory variables and lagging one period;② Mechanism test shows that green credit indirectly promotes carbon emission reduction mainly through two paths:technological innovation and industrial structure optimization.Compared with industrial structure optimization,technological innovation leads to its long technological innovation cycle and short-term energy rebound.Its contribution to carbon emission reduction is relatively weak;③ Heterogeneity analysis shows that the carbon emission reduction effect of green credit showed significant regional gradient differences,with significant effects in the central and western regions,but relatively weak in the eastern and northeastern regions.Finally,suggestions and recommendations are made from the aspects of strengthening the direct carbon suppression efficiency of green credit,collaboratively promoting technological innovation and industrial structure optimization,and implementing differentiated green credit policies.

Evolution analysis of coal industry policies based on big data mining technology
[Journal Article]SONG Jinggang, LIU Yuanyuan, LIU Xiangjie-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:As a crucial pillar of the national economy,the coal industry plays a fundamental role in safeguarding national energy security and promoting socio-economic development.In recent years,governments at all levels in China have issued a series of policies to drive the transformation,upgrading and high-quality development of the coal industry.Systematically sorting out the evolutionary process and policy characteristics of coal-related policies since the supply-side structural reform is conducive to formulating development strategies for the coal industry during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period,and enhancing the effectiveness of highlighting content adjustments and policy continuity.Taking coal industry policy texts from 2016 to 2024 as the research object,this paper adopts text mining and quantitative analysis methods to construct a dual-dimensional collaborative analysis framework of "policy subject-policy theme".It conducts visualized research from two dimensions:the collaborative relationship among policy subjects and the evolution of policy themes,and explores the impact of policies on the development of the coal industry.The results show that China's coal industry policy system presents multi-level and multi-dimensional characteristics.With the National Development and Reform Commission as the core,it forms high-frequency linkage with the National Energy Administration,the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,the National Mine Safety Administration and other departments,constituting the core subjects of the policy network.In terms of policy themes,issues such as coal mine safety production,capacity regulation,coal mine construction,clean coal utilization,and ecological protection of mining areas have been continuously strengthened.The construction of coal reserve systems,intelligent development and technological innovation have become key policy directions.In response to the structural and executive deficiencies in policy content in recent years,this paper suggests optimizing the top-down policy implementation efficiency,strengthening the flexibility of regional coal policies under the unified national energy market,and promoting AI-enabled policy formulation for the coal industry.

Technology innovation paths and suggestions in the coal sector towards 2035
[Journal Article]GUO Shusen, LIU Xiao, FANG Xiaolu et al.-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:Based on China's energy resource endowments and guided by the "dual carbon" goals,this study focuses on promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of the coal industry through three core paths:technological breakthroughs,industrial collaboration,and institutional innovation.It systematically analyzes the functional positioning and core objectives of scientific and technological innovation in the coal sector towards 2035,clarifies phased key tasks,and in-depth explores the collaborative advancement system of scientific and technological innovation,including the implementation framework,participating entities,and landing paths.By optimizing the allocation of innovation resources,fostering a high-quality innovation ecosystem,and enhancing the effectiveness of innovation management,an efficient and collaborative scientific and technological innovation system is constructed to inject impetus into the high-quality development of the coal industry.In response to the development needs of scientific and technological innovation in the coal sector towards 2035,this study puts forward four key suggestions:Establishing a scientific and technological innovation monitoring and situation awareness platform,building an application-oriented "government-industry-university-research-user" collaborative innovation system,promoting the integrated planning of technological innovation and transformation paths,and improving innovation incentive mechanisms and institutional guarantees.By strengthening the multi-party collaborative linkage among governments,enterprises,universities,and research institutions,we will jointly promote the in-depth integration of scientific and technological innovation and low-carbon transformation,helping the coal industry to achieve green,low-carbon,and efficient sustainable development while consolidating energy security guarantees,and providing important support for the smooth realization of China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

Inter-provincial carbon emission spatial network characteristics and influencing mechanisms in China
[Journal Article]GAO Yuliang-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:Against the backdrop of global climate change and the carbon neutrality initiative,increasing attention has been paid to the spatial linkages of inter-provincial carbon emissions.This study constructs the spatial correlation network of China's inter-provincial carbon emissions from 2011 to 2021 using a gravity model,and examines both the overall-individual and regional-local network characteristics through social network analysis(SNA).Furthermore,the exponential random graph model(ERGM)is employed to explore the evolutionary dynamics of the carbon emission spatial network.The results reveal that China's inter-provincial carbon emission network has become increasingly interconnected,with an overall expansion in network scale.Core provinces such as Hebei,Jiangsu,Shandong,Hubei,and Henan play pivotal roles in regional carbon emission linkages.The southeastern coastal region constitutes a net-spillover cluster,the northern region forms a bidirectional spillover cluster,the central region functions as a broker cluster,while the western region constitutes a net-inflow cluster.The evolution of the spatial carbon emission network has gradually shifted from a chain-driven to a closure-driven structure.Empirical evidence further indicates that industrial upgrading,economic development,openness to the outside world,environmental regulation,and path dependence in the process of network formation are the key driving factors shaping the carbon emission network.

Research on the influence of new-quality productivity on the high-quality development of the mining industry
[Journal Article]WEI Like, HE Yaoyu-Coal Economic Research2025, No.12

Abstract:In the context of global economic adjustment,the development of new quality productivity is an inherent requirement and an important focus to promote the high-quality development of the mining industry.Taking the listed companies in China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share mining industry from 2013 to 2023 as the research sample,the impact of new quality productivity on the high-quality development of the mining industry is empirically tested through the fixed-effect model,as well as the mediating role of technological innovation and the moderating role of government subsidies.The results show that the new quality productivity has a promoting effect on the high-quality development of the mining industry.Technological innovation has played a partly mediating role between new quality productivity and the high-quality development of the mining industry.Government subsidies negatively regulate the relationship between new productivity and technological innovation.The heterogeneity study finds that compared with the eastern and western regions,the promotion effect of new quality productivity on the high-quality development of the mining industry is more significant in the central region.Compared with state-owned enterprises,the new quality productivity has a more significant role in promoting the high-quality development of non-state-owned enterprises.The study reveals the internal mechanism between new quality productivity and the high-quality development of the mining industry,which can provide some enlightenment for related enterprises.