Research on the technological emission reduction potential andtrend of China's steel industry based on the mas method
LIAO Jianbo
ZHAO Lutao
LI Zhaoyuan
AN Xingyu
Abstract：The global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions has become a major challenge for the international community.The steel industry,as a key source of emissions,contributes 7%to 9%of global CO2 emissions.The effectiveness of its emission reduction efforts is crucial to the climate governance process.Technological upgrading has become the core path to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions.This study,based on the multi-agent system approach,integrates the steel product production,energy consumption,and CO2 emission modules,designs three different types of enterprise entities with different technology penetration rates,and builds a complex system simulation model for the "steel production-energy consumption-carbon emission" of the Chinese steel industry.It systematically analyzes the impact of different technology penetration rates on the energy consumption and carbon emissions of steel enterprises and predicts the development trends of energy consumption and carbon emissions of different types of steel enterprises.The research shows that by 2050,the coal consumption of the benchmark enterprise,the low penetration rate enterprise,and the high penetration rate enterprise will be reduced to approximately 393 million GJ,355 million GJ,and 318 million GJ;CO2 emissions will be reduced to about 29 million tons,23 million tons,and 17 million tons.The improvement of the technological penetration rate of steel enterprises can significantly increase the coal savings and CO2 emission reductions.Among the six emission reduction technologies,the recovery technology of the furnace gas sensible heat has the highest emission reduction efficiency and should be promoted as a priority;the high blast furnace coal injection technology and the high blast furnace top pressure difference power generation technology have relatively lower emission reduction efficiency and should accelerate the technological transformation.Through comparative analysis,it provides a decision-making basis for the selection and promotion of emission reduction technologies in the steel industry.
Keywords：iron industryenergy conservation and carbon reductionmulti-agent systemcarbon emission reduction technologytechnology penetration rate
Publication Date：2026-01-28
Online Publishing Date：2026-03-19(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：11( 89-99 )