Impact of green credit on carbon emissions:Effects,mechanisms and regional heterogeneity

WEI Jinhong; LI Linyi; JIANG Xuehai; HUANG Haiqing

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-9605.2025.12.012

Abstract：Studying the impact of green credit on carbon emissions is of great significance for understanding the mechanism of green credit in the transformation of low-carbon economy,promoting sustainable economic development,and achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Based on the panel data of 30 provincial administrative regions in China(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2013 to 2022,this paper conducts empirical tests by constructing a two-way fixed effect model,a dynamic panel model and a mediation effect model,and deeply studies the impact of green credit on carbon emission intensity and its heterogeneous characteristics.The results show that:① Green credit has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emission intensity,and this result is still valid in the robustness test of replacing the core explanatory variables and lagging one period;② Mechanism test shows that green credit indirectly promotes carbon emission reduction mainly through two paths:technological innovation and industrial structure optimization.Compared with industrial structure optimization,technological innovation leads to its long technological innovation cycle and short-term energy rebound.Its contribution to carbon emission reduction is relatively weak;③ Heterogeneity analysis shows that the carbon emission reduction effect of green credit showed significant regional gradient differences,with significant effects in the central and western regions,but relatively weak in the eastern and northeastern regions.Finally,suggestions and recommendations are made from the aspects of strengthening the direct carbon suppression efficiency of green credit,collaboratively promoting technological innovation and industrial structure optimization,and implementing differentiated green credit policies.