Discrete logistic dynamic model and its parameter identification for the Ebola epidemic
CAO Yadan
WEI Shunxing
XU Gongxian
Abstract：This paper studies the mathematical modeling and its parameter identification for the infectious dynamics of Ebola epidemic.Firstly, a discrete logistic model is built for the Ebola epidemic.Secondly, a pa－rameter identification optimization problem is presented.This optimization problem can calculate the optimal val－ues of the parameters of the presented discrete logistic model.Finally, based on the infection data in Guinea , Si－erra Leone and Liberia given by the World Health Organization (WHO), the optimal values of the parameters of the presented discrete logistic model of Ebola epidemic are fitted.The parameter analysis is also carried out.The result analysis shows that the infection situations of Ebola epidemic are different in these West African countries . There are also big differences in the growth rate and inhibition constant of these infected countries.Compared with the existing results for the continuous logistic model , the presented discrete logistic model has a smaller pa－rameter identification error.The discrete logistic model can give a better description for the infectious dynamics of Ebola epidemic.
Keywords：Ebola epidemicinfectious dynamicsdiscrete logistic modelparameter identification
Publication Date：2019-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 257-262 )