To Construct a Nomogram Model for Cardiogenic Death in Patients with Heart Failure Based on the Clinical Characteristics of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine

CHEN Shu; YAN Xiaoru; WANG Xin

doi:10.12102/j.issn.1672-1349.2025.20.001

Abstract：Objective:Based on the clinical characteristics of integrated Chinese and Western medicine,this study aims to explore the influencing factors of cardiogenic death in patients with heart failure and to establish a Nomogram model.Methods:A total of 200 heart failure patients treated in our hospital from April 2017 to June 2022 were retrospectively selected and divided into a cardiac death group(n=27)and a non-cardiac death group(n=173)according to whether cardiogenic death occurred within 1 year.The independent influencing factors of the clinical characteristics of integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine were obtained through single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis.A prediction model was constructed based on regression analysis,and a Nomogram was drawn using R language software.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive efficacy.Results:Univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that Qi-deficiency syndrome,blood stasis syndrome,traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)dialectical staging,application of TCM rehabilitation exercise,course of disease,red blood cell count,hemoglobin content,and atrial fibrillation were independent influencing factors of cardiogenic death in patients with heart failure.The difference was statistically significant(P＜0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)of the Nomogram model based on the above 8 independent factors was 0.972,and the sensitivity and specificity corresponding to the optimal cutoff value of 0.346 were 0.805 and 0.886,respectively.The model's discriminative ability is good.The calibration curve results show that the mean absolute error(MAE)is 0.027.The calibration curve fits well with the ideal curve,indicating that the model has good calibration performance and is more reliable and stable.Conclusion:Cardiogenic death in patients with heart failure is influenced by Qi-deficiency syndrome,TCM syndrome differentiation stage,red blood cell count,atrial fibrillation,and other clinical characteristics from integrated Chinese and Western medicine.The Nomogram model built based on the above 8 independent influencing factors has a good predictive effect and can provide a basis for developing prognostic plans and preventing cardiogenic death in patients with heart failure.