Construction and Evaluation of a Nomogram Prediction Model for the Risk of Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Heart Failure
CAO Yuanyuan
LIU Xiaomeng
XIE Mengxin
YAN Kuipo
ZHU Cuiling
LI Xingyuan
LIU Gang
LI Yizhuo
YAN Haifeng
Abstract：Objective:To analyze the independent risk factors of acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure(CHF)and establish a prediction model for the risk of exacerbation.Methods:A total of 402 patients who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria in the Heart Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Chinese Medicine from January 2020 to December 2022 were selected.Clinical data of the patients were collected,and multiple logistic regression analysis was used to screen for independent risk factors of acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure.These factors were then incorporated into a prediction model,and a nomogram was drawn.The prediction model was evaluated by discrimination evaluation,calibration test,and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test.Results:Age,left ventricular ejection fraction,and triglyceride level were independent risk factors of acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure.The best cut-off value of the discrimination of the evaluation model was 0.918,the sensitivity was 0.949,the specificity was 0.959,and the area under the curve was 0.969.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test χ2=11.763,degrees of freedom=8,P=0.162 1.Conclusion:Age,left ventricular ejection fraction,and triglyceride level are independent risk factors of acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure.The prediction model shows good discrimination and calibration,and the goodness of fit is better,at the same time,with certain prediction ability.
Keywords：chronic heart failureacute exacerbationnomogramprediction modelleft ventricular ejection fractiontriacylglycerol
Publication Date：2025-06-10
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 1601-1606 )