The Influence Factors and the Construction of Prediction Model of Long-term Prognosis of Patients with Chronic Heart Failure Complicated with Atrial Fibrillation
HAO Lina
LIU Feng
WANG Baobao
YUAN Mengnan
WANG Xiaojuan
Abstract：Objective: To explore the influencing factors of long-term prognosis in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) combined with atrial fibrillation (AF) and to construct a prediction model. Methods: A total of 371 patients with CHF combined with AF who were treated at Anyang Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, Henan Province from January 2016 to January 2020 were selected as the study subjects. According to whether they experienced cardiac death during follow-up, they were divided into a death group (51 cases) and a survival group (320 cases). Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to evaluate the influencing factors of long-term prognosis in patients with CHF combined with AF, and to construct a prediction model and analyze its performance. Results: There were statistically significant differences between the two groups in total bilirubin levels, hemoglobin levels, traditional Chinese medicine syndrome type (yang deficiency), and the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI)/angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB) and qi-tonifying herbs (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that total bilirubin, hemoglobin, traditional Chinese medicine syndrome type (yang deficiency), and the use of ACEI/ARB and qi-tonifying herbs were all independent factors affecting the long-term prognosis of patients with CHF combined with AF (P < 0.05). Using the independent influencing factors and P values from the regression model, the predicted probabilities for the long-term prognosis of patients with CHF combined with AF were 18.08%, 26.64%, 29.96%, 46.75%, 44.65%, and 60.96%, respectively. Conclusion: The long-term prognosis of patients with CHF combined with AF is related to total bilirubin levels, hemoglobin levels, traditional Chinese medicine syndrome type (yang deficiency), and the use of ACEI/ARB and qi-tonifying herbs. The prediction model constructed based on these indicators shows good performance in predicting long-term cardiac death in patients.
Keywords：chronic heart failureatrial fibrillationprognosisprediction model
Publication Date：2025-03-15
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 730-734 )