Study on the Changes of Cytokines in High-Risk Population of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Their Value in Diagnosis and Prognostic Assessment

HU Xiaoying; YANG Shuang; WU Biying

doi:10.13919/j.issn.2095-6274.ZHJY202501051

Abstract：Objective This study aims to investigate the specific mechanisms by which cytokines,as key inflammatory mediators,contribute to the onset,progression,and exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease(COPD).The findings seek to provide a scientific basis for the early identification,disease monitoring,and development of personalized treatment strategies for COPD.Methods The study population consisted of residents aged 35 to 75 years from Jiangchuan Road,Minhang District,Shanghai.Through questionnaire surveys,physical measurements,and pulmonary function tests,we identified 34 healthy individuals as the control group and 56 individuals at high risk for COPD as the high-risk group.We compared 22 parameters from complete blood counts and levels of 12 cytokines,including interferon-α,tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α),etc.between the two groups.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses,as well as receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analyses,were employed to assess the changes in cytokines in COPD and their diagnostic and prognostic value.Results Levels of TNF-α,IL-6,IL-5,and IL-8 were significantly higher in the COPD high-risk group compared to the control group(P＜0.05),while levels of IL-4 and IL-12p70 were significantly low-er(P＜0.05).In the multivariate logistic regression model,factors such as TNF-α,IL-6,IL-4,and age demonstrat-ed statistically significant effects on the high-risk status for COPD(P＜0.05).Models constructed using stepwise,forward selection,and backward elimination methods all exhibited diagnostic efficacy.The ROC curve from the stepwise method showed an area under the curve(AUC)of 0.9716 with a correct classification rate of 87.78％.The ROC curve from the forward selection method had an AUC of 0.9680 with a correct classification rate of 88.89％.The ROC curve from the backward elimination method showed an AUC of 0.9643 with a correct classification rate of 88.89％.Conclusion Elevated levels of TNF-α,IL-6,IL-5,and IL-8,along with decreased levels of IL-4 and IL-12p70,were observed in the COPD high-risk group.TNF-α,IL-6,IL-4,and age significantly influenced the high-risk status for COPD.Changes in cytokine levels exhibited high sensitivity and specificity,making them effec-tive for early identification,disease monitoring,and prognostic evaluation of COPD,thereby providing important scientific evidence for the formulation of personalized treatment strategies.