Comparing and Predicting the Disease Burden of Migraine and Tension-Type Headache in China Based on the GBD 2021 Data

XIA Jing; HAO Yanru; JIANG Ying; CAO Yihan; ZHANG Yan

doi:10.3639/j.issn.2095-3097.2026.01.032

Abstract：Objective To compare and analyze the current status and changing trends of the disease burden of migraine and tension-type headache(TTH)in China from 1990 to 2021,and to predict the changes in the disease burden of these two conditions from 2022 to 2050.Methods Data on the incidence,prevalence,and Disability-Adjusted Life Year(DALY)of migraine and TTH in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database to analyze the current status of their disease burden.The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change and average annual percentage change(AAPC)of the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR),and age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)for migraine and TTH in China,so as to analyze their long-term changing trends.The Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was adopted to predict the future changes in the ASDR of migraine and TTH from 2022 to 2050.Results From 1990 to 2021,the ASIR,ASPR,and ASDR of migraine and TTH in China showed an upward trend,and the number of TTH patients was significantly higher than that of migraine patients.Compared with 1990,the ASIR,ASPR,and ASDR of migraine in 2021 increased by 6.35%,7.57%,and 7.43%,respectively;while those of TTH increased by 5.93%,7.86%,and 4.08%,respectively.The disease burden of migraine and TTH in females was significantly higher than that in males.For migraine,the incidence rate was the highest in the 10-14 years age group,and the prevalence rate and DALY rate were the highest in the 40-44 years age group.The age distribution of TTH was relatively uniform,with the highest disease burden in the 30-34 years and 65-74 years age groups.From 1990 to 2021,the AAPC of ASIR,ASPR,and ASDR for migraine were 0.20%,0.24%,and 0.23%,respectively;while those for TTH were 0.19%,0.25%,and 0.15%,respectively.The prediction showed that the overall ASDR of migraine and TTH in China would present an upward trend by 2050:the ASDR of migraine was expected to reach 553.03 per 100 000 in females and 354.01 per 100 000 in males;the ASDR of TTH was also expected to increase in both genders,reaching 61.64 per 100 000 in females and 51.82 per 100 000 in males.Conclusion From 1990 to 2021,the incidence,prevalence,and DALY of migraine and TTH in China showed an upward trend.The disease burden of migraine and TTH in China remains relatively severe,especially the DALY rate of migraine and the incidence rate of TTH.Meanwhile,attention should be focused on adolescents and young and middle-aged populations,with rational allocation of medical resources and formulation of corresponding public health policies.