Development of a Prediction Model for the Risk of Disease Recurrence after Postoperative 131I Therapy in Patients with TgAb-Positive Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma
LIU Shaohua
ZHAI Chao
MA Li
FU Wei
CHEN Zhengfu
DING Minxia
Abstract：Objective To investigate the factors influencing the risk of disease recurrence in patients with thyroglobulin antibody(TgAb)positive papillary thyroid carcinoma(PTC)after postoperative 131I treatment and to construct a prediction model based on clinical indicators,aiming to provide reference for the formulation of postoperative treatment plans and prognosis prediction.Methods Clinical data of 251 patients with TgAb-positive PTC who underwent total thyroidectomy and postoperative 131I treatment at 3201 Hospital from January 2017 to January 2024 were retrospectively analyzed.Patients were grouped based on whether recurrence occurred within 12 months after treatment.Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to screen for factors influencing the risk of disease recurrence.A prediction model was constructed based on the independent influencing factors.Results Among the 251 patients,35 experienced recurrence within 12 months after surgery,with a recurrence rate of 13.94%.Univariate analysis showed that age,gender,presence of lymph node metastasis,and TgAb levels before 131I treatment were all associated with disease recurrence(P<0.05).Logistic multivariate analysis confirmed that older age,male gender,lymph node metastasis,and higher TgAb levels before 131I treatment were independent risk factors for disease recurrence in TgAb-positive PTC patients after postoperative 131I treatment(P<0.05).A nomogram model was constructed using age,gender,lymph node metastasis,and TgAb levels before 131I treatment.ROC curves were plotted to predict disease recurrence in TgAb-positive PTC patients after postoperative 131I treatment using age,gender,presence of lymph node metastasis,TgAb levels before 131I treatment,and the nomogram.The areas under the curves were 0.656,0.791,0.897,0.749,and 0.974,respectively.Conclusion Disease recurrence in TgAb-positive PTC patients after postoperative 131I treatment is closely related to age,gender,lymph node metastasis,and TgAb levels before 131I treatment.The nomogram prediction model constructed using these four factors demonstrates good performance in predicting patient recurrence and is worthy of further analysis in clinical practice.
Keywords：thyroglobulin antibodypapillary thyroid carcinoma131I therapyrecurrence
Publication Date：2025-12-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-12-25(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 113-117 )