Analysis of Risk Factors and Construction of A Nomogram Prediction Model for Concurrent Chronic Kidney Disease in Elderly Hypertensive Patients
WANG Jinglu
DING Weimin
JIANG Jing
LIU Yinghua
GUO Jianying
ZHANG Qi
SONG Leiyu
Abstract：Objective To analyze the risk factors for chronic kidney disease(CKD)in elderly hypertensive patients and construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods We selected 180 elderly hypertensive patients from The First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei North University between December 2021 and October 2023.Patients were divided into a CKD group(n=52)and a non-CKD group(n=128)based on the presence of CKD.Clinical data were collected for all subjects.Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze risk factors for CKD in elderly hypertensive patients.A nomogram prediction model was created using R language,and the predictive efficacy of the model was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.Results Univariate analysis showed that body mass index(BMI),duration of hypertension,diastolic blood pressure,white blood cell count,aspartate aminotransferase,glycosylated hemoglobin,serum creatinine,and serum uric acid levels were significantly higher in the CKD group than in the non-CKD group(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified BMI,duration of hypertension,diastolic blood pressure,blood creatinine,and blood uric acid as independent risk factors for CKD(P<0.05).The nomogram prediction model was constructed using the rms package in R.ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve for predicting CKD in elderly hypertensive patients using the nomogram model was 0.977(95%CI:0.950-0.998).Conclusion BMI,duration of hypertension,diastolic blood pressure,blood creatinine,and blood uric acid are risk factors for CKD in elderly hypertensive patients.The constructed nomogram prediction model demonstrates good predictive efficacy for CKD in this population.
Keywords：hypertensionelderlychronic kidney diseaseinfluence factor analysisnomogramprediction
Publication Date：2025-09-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-09-29(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 33-36 )