Analysis of Disease Burden and Trend Prediction for Brain and CNS Cancers in Chinese Children and Adults from 1990 to 2021
YIN Yin
LI Zeng
HUANG Zijing
SONG Changlong
FU Boyuan
Abstract：Objective To analyze the current status and changing trends of disease burden of brain and central nervous system(CNS)cancers in Chinese children(0-19 years)and adults(20-64 years)from 1990 to 2021,and to predict the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate(ASDR)of brain and CNS cancers in China for 2022-2050.This study aims to provide a basis for formulating targeted prevention strategies and resource allocation for brain and CNS cancers control in China.Methods Data on the incidence and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)of brain and CNS cancers in Chinese children and adults by gender and age group from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database.The crude data were adjusted using world standard population weights.Joinpoint regression models were used to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and average APC(AAPC)in ASIR and ASDR of brain and CNS cancers in Chinese children and adults,analyzing their long-term trends.The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to predict future trends in ASIR and ASDR of brain and CNS cancers in Chinese children and adults for 2022-2050.Results From 1990 to 2021,the ASIR of brain and CNS cancers in Chinese children remained relatively stable,while a significant upward trend was observed in adults;the ASDR in both children and adults showed decreasing trends.In 2021,the ASIR and ASDR of brain and CNS cancers in Chinese children were 3.1 per 100 000 and 88.2 per 100 000,respectively.For adults,the ASIR and ASDR were 308.08 per 100 000 and 390.32 per 100 000.Compared with 1990,the overall ASIR and ASDR for children in 2021 decreased by 3.3%and 53.5%,respectively.The overall ASIR in adults increased by 38.7%,while the overall ASDR decreased by 6.4%.The AAPC of ASIR in children was-0.24%(95%CI:-0.49%--0.02%)(P>0.05),and the AAPC of ASDR was-2.56%(95%CI:-2.82%--2.31%)(P<0.05);for adults,the AAPC of ASIR was 1.06%(95%CI:0.93%-1.19%)(P<0.05),and the AAPC of ASDR was-0.22%(95%CI:-0.32%--0.11%)(P<0.05).Predictions indicate that the overall ASIR of brain and CNS cancers in China will show an increasing trend by 2050.The ASIR for females and males is projected to reach 7.86 per 100 000(95%UI:-0.21 to 15.93 per 100 000)and 7.84 per 100 000(95%UI:0.85 to 14.83 per 100 000),respectively.The overall ASDR shows a decreasing trend,with the ASDR for females and males expected to reach 81.52 per 100 000(95%UI:-7.48 to 170.52 per 100 000)and 113.14 per 100 000(95%UI:4.71 to 221.57 per 100 000),respectively.Conclusion From 1990 to 2021,the incidence and DALY of brain and CNS cancers in Chinese children showed downward trends,while the incidence in adults showed a significant upward trend with declining DALY.Future efforts should strengthen early screening,prevention,and treatment for both children and adults,particularly targeting young children(5-9 years)and older adults(55-59 years).Rational allocation of medical resources and formulation of corresponding public health policies are essential.
Keywords：brain and central nervous system cancerchildrenadultsdisease burdenBayesian age-period-cohort modeldisability-adjusted life years
Publication Date：2025-08-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-09-18(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 170-176 )