Trends and Projections of Disease Burden of Blindness and Vision Loss Among Chinese Children and Adolescents Based on GBD 2021
HE Pengyuan
ZHANG Jian
GAO Rui
SONG Haiqing
LIU Hong
WU Xiaotong
BAI Yaya
Abstract：Objective To analyze the burden changes and trends of three subtypes of blindness and vision loss(BVL)-refractive errors,near vision loss,and other vision impairments-among Chinese children and adolescents(0-19 years)from 1990 to 2021,and to predict the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate(ASDR)of BVL in this population for 2022-2050,providing a basis for the rational allocation of medical resources and the formulation of public health policies for BVL among children and adolescents in China.Methods Data on the prevalence and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)of BVL among Chinese children and adolescents by gender and age groups from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Database.Regression models were used to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and average APC(AAPC)of age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR)and ASDR of BVL,analyzing long-term trends.The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict ASDR trends of BVL for 2022-2050.Results From 1990 to 2021,ASPR and ASDR of refractive errors showed a significant upward trend,while the burden of near vision loss and other vision impairments decreased significantly.In 2021,ASPR for refractive errors,near vision loss,and other vision impairments was 760.12,1 188.63,and 69.78 per 100 000,respectively,with ASDR of 28.13,12.45,and 6.54 per 100 000.Compared with 1990,refractive errors'ASPR and ASDR increased by 12.95%and 13.84%,near vision loss decreased by 6.77%and 6.67%,and other vision impairments decreased by 6.79%and 8.53%.AAPC for ASPR/ASDR of refractive errors was 0.41%,0.43%,near vision loss was-0.23%,-0.22%,and other vision impairments was-0.26%,-0.35%.By 2050,ASDR for refractive errors is predicted to decline(females:-38.85%;males:-15.32%vs 2021),while increasing for near vision loss(females:+2.32%;males:+5.61%)and other vision impairments(females:+102.75%;males:+247.35%).Conclusion From 1990 to 2021,the overall burden of the three subtypes of BVL among Chinese female children and adolescents was higher than that among males.Among them,the prevalence rate of near vision decline was the highest,the DALY rate of refraction disorders was the highest,and both the prevalence rate and DALY rate of other vision impairments were the lowest.The prevalence and disease burden of refraction disorders showed a significant upward trend,while the burden of near vision loss and other vision loss decreased significantly.Therefore,in the future,great emphasis should be placed on the prevention,control,and screening of refraction disorders in children and adolescents.Further efforts should be made to strengthen the prevention and control strategies for near vision loss in this population,and comprehensive nursing interventions should be implemented to address the severe impact of other vision loss on children and adolescents.
Keywords：blindness and vision lossrefractive errorsnear vision lossother vision impairmentschildren and adolescentsdisease burdenbayesian age-period-cohort model
Publication Date：2025-08-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-09-18(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 120-125 )