The Predictive Value of A Nomogram Model Based on Conventional Peripheral Blood Inflammatory Markers for Pulmonary Infection in Patients with Alzheimer's Disease
YU Bo
WANG Pengfei
YAO Chunsheng
QIAO Yan
WEI Chen
DU Shaohua
FAN Runcong
Abstract：Objective To analyze the influencing factors of pulmonary infection in patients with Alzheimer disease(AD)based on conventional peripheral blood inflammatory markers and construct a nomogram model.Methods A total of 205 AD patients admitted to Hebei Yanda Hospital from October 2023 to January 2025 were selected and divided into the infection group(54 cases)and the non-infection group(151 cases)based on whether they developed pulmonary infection during hospitalization.Multivariate Logistic stepwise regression analysis was used to investigate the influencing factors of pulmonary infection in AD patients.A nomogram was drawn,and the ROC curve was used to analyze the predictive value of the nomogram model for pulmonary infection in AD patients.Results The proportions of smoking,diabetes,disease course≥3 years,dysphagia,irrational use of antibiotics,and bed rest time≥6 months,white blood cell count,procalcitonin,neutrophils,C-reactive protein,inflammatory burden index,and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio in the infected group were higher than those in the non-infected group[66.67%vs 41.06%,P<0.05;59.26%vs 38.41%,P<0.05;68.52%vs 41.06%,P<0.05;61.11%vs 35.76%,P<0.05;75.93%vs 52.32%,P<0.05;62.96%vs 34.44%,P<0.05;(10.11±1.35)×109/L vs(6.32±1.28)×109/L,P<0.05;(1.38±0.48)ng/mL vs(0.42±0.12)ng/mL,P<0.05;(6.48±1.74)×109/L vs(4.37±1.34)×109/L,P<0.05;(22.27±4.38)mg/L vs(8.29±3.56)mg/L,P<0.05;(207.25±37.61)vs(22.82±6.24),P<0.05;(4.22±1.10)vs(2.82±1.02),P<0.05].Multivariate Logistic stepwise regression analysis showed that diabetes,dysphagia,irrational use of antibiotics,elevated procalcitonin,and high inflammatory burden index were independent risk factors for pulmonary infection in AD patients(OR=2.164,95%CI:1.334-3.512,P<0.05;OR=2.190,95%CI:1.468-3.267,P<0.05;OR=1.868,95%CI:1.315-2.653,P<0.05;OR=1.844,95%CI:1.161-2.929,P<0.05;OR=2.824,95%CI:1.414-5.640,P<0.05).The nomogram model showed a consistency index of 0.892(95%CI:0.843-0.942).The AUC of the nomogram model for predicting pulmonary infection in AD patients was 0.873(95%CI:0.822-0.924),with a sensitivity of 92.59%and specificity of 68.21%,where high sensitivity helps to rule out infections,while lower specificity might lead to false positive issues.Conclusion Diabetes,dysphagia,irrational use of antibiotics,elevated procalcitonin,and high inflammatory burden index are risk factors for pulmonary infection in AD patients.The nomogram model constructed based on these factors has certain predictive value for pulmonary infection.
Keywords：Alzheimer diseasepulmonary infectioninflammatory markersnomograminfluencing factors
Publication Date：2025-08-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-09-18(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 97-102 )