Relationship between Serum ET-1,sIL-2R and Disease Prognosis in Cirrhotic Patients with Esophageal and Gastric Variceal Bleeding

CHENG Kunpeng; ZHU Shanling; MA Jing; LIU Yang; HUANG Liumi; GAO Qian

doi:10.3639/j.issn.2095-3097.2025.07.001

Abstract：Objective To investigate the relationship between serum endothelin-1(ET-1),soluble interleukin-2 re-ceptor(sIL-2R)and the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis and esophagogastric variceal bleeding(EGVB).Methods A total of 155 cirrhosis EGVB patients admitted to Huangshi Fifth Hospital from January 2021 to March 2023 were selected.Patients were divided into poor prognosis group(n=72)and good prognosis group(n=83)according to the disease outcome one year after follow-up,and serum levels of ET-1 and sIL-2R were detected.Factors affecting the prognosis were analyzed by uni-variate and multivariate logistic regression analysis,and the predictive value of serum ET-1 and sIL-2R levels was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results The incidence of poor prognosis was 46.45%(72/155)at 1-year follow-up.Univariate analysis showed that hepatic ascites,albumin,hemoglobin,Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP)score,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)score,ET-1 and sIL-2R were associated with prognosis(all P<0.05).An elevated albu-min level was an independent protective factor(OR=0.755,95%CI:0.631-0.903).Independent risk factors were higher CTP score(OR=3.167,95%CI:1.464-6.852),higher MELD score(OR=2.320,95%CI:1.432-3.758),elevated ET-1(OR=1.075,95%CI:1.036-1.115),and elevated sIL-2R(OR=1.011,95%CI:1.006-1.017)(all P<0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)for combined detection of ET-1 and sIL-2R in predicting poor prognosis was 0.878,significantly higher than that of individual detection(0.795 and 0.789;Z=3.178,3.000,both P<0.05).Conclusion Elevated serum ET-1 and sIL-2R levels were in-dependent risk factors for poor prognosis in cirrhosis EGVB patients.Their combination has a high predictive value for poor prognosis.