Risk Factors and Predictive Model for Chronic Postoperative Pain in Elderly Patients Undergoing Total Knee Arthroplasty
CHEN Cheng
WU Zhanpo
DING Zuyun
GUI Jianchao
Abstract：Objective To analyze the risk factors for chronic postoperative pain(CPSP)in elderly patients under-going total knee arthroplasty(TKA)and establish a predictive model.Methods A total of 154 elderly patients with knee osteoarthritis(KOA)who underwent TKA at Nanjing Lishui District People's Hospital from January 2022 to March 2024 were included.Patients were divided into a CPSP group(n=57)and a non-CPSP group(n=97)based on the presence of CPSP.Mul-tivariate logistic regression was used to identify factors influencing CPSP and construct a predictive model.The predictive value of the model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results Preoperative opioid use,sleep disturbances,anxiety,depression,increased 24-hour postoperative numeric rating scale(NRS)pain scores,and elevated 24-hour postoperative C-reactive protein(CRP)levels were identified as independent risk factors for CPSP after TKA in elderly patients(all P<0.05).A predictive model based on these independent risk factors was developed,with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showing good calibration(P>0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)of the model was 0.879,with a sensitivity of 0.684 and specificity of 0.928.Conclusions Preoperative opioid use,sleep disturbances,anxiety,depression,NRS pain scores,and CRP levels are independent risk factors for CPSP in elderly patients after TKA.The predictive model based on these factors has high predictive value for CPSP in this population.
Keywords：Knee osteoarthritisElderlyTotal knee arthroplastyChronic postoperative painRisk factors
Publication Date：2024-12-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 1880-1884 )