Epidemiological characteristics and ARIMA model prediction analysis of hand,foot and mouth disease in Lingwu from 2012 to 2024
WU Yanan
YANG Xiaoyan
LI Jianpeng
YANG Fan
ZHANG Kun
Abstract：Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and the trend of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Lingwu,Ningxia,and to propose scientific prevention and control strategies.Methods Data of HFMD cases in Lingwu from 2012 to 2024 were collected.Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the temporal,spatial and population distribution of HFMD in Lingwu.And autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was constructed for the prediction analysis.Results The reported incidence of HFMD in Lingwu from 2012 to 2024,with an average reported incidence rate of 77.94/100 000.The lowest reported incidence rate was 6.06/100 000 in 2022,and the highest reported incidence rate was 224.32/100 000 in 2019.Cases were reported throughout the year,and the peak period of incidence was mainly from May to July and September to November.In terms of the population distribution,the susceptible population was mainly children aged 5 and under,and the reported incidence rate of boys was higher than that of girls.The ARIMA model showed that the fitted value of HFMD from 2012 to 2024 was highly consistent with the actual observed value,and the absolute error(MAE=18.78)and the root mean square error(RMSE=34.79)were small,which indicated that the model a good fitting effect and could effectively capture the trend and seasonal characteristics of the data.The prediction results showed that the seasonal fluctuation of HFMD still existed from 2025 to 2027,and the number of cases was stable.Conclusion For the prevention and control of HFMD in Lingwu,a joint prevention and control system centered on"key populations,critical periods,and scientific early warning"should be establish.Priority should be given to the prevention and control work targeting scattered children under the age of 5 and children in nursery and childcare institutions.Proper prevention and control resources and prepare for emergency responses should be allocated before the arrival of the annual dual epidemic peaks in summer and autumn.It is necessary to strengthen the collaboration between the education sector and the health sector to give full play to the effectiveness of the early warning mechanism.
Keywords：handfoot and mouth diseaseepidemiological characteristicsARIMA modelcontrol measures
Publication Date：2026-02-20
Online Publishing Date：2026-04-02(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 119-123 )