Risk assessment of dengue fever in Sichuan Province in 2025
CAO Yiou
ZHOU Xingyu
YUAN Heng
XIAO Chongkun
HU Yajie
Abstract：Objective To analyze the import and local transmission risks of dengue fever in Sichuan Province in 2025,so as to provide a scientific basis for effective prevention and control measures.Methods Qualitative analysis methods were used to evaluate import risks.Using expert panel method and risk matrix method,various factors affecting the local transmission of dengue fever were assigned values and weights were determined to evaluate the local transmission risk.Results The likelihood of reporting imported cases of dengue fever from abroad in Sichuan Province in 2025 is"almost certain",while the likelihood of reporting domestic imported cases is"possible".It is predicted that the peak of reporting imported cases from abroad in Sichuan Province in 2025 will be from June to October,with the main sources being Southeast Asia and South Asia.The peak of reporting domestic imported cases will be from August to October,with a focus on provinces with relatively severe local epidemics that year(such as Guangdong,Yunnan,etc.).From May to June,there would be 10 cities/states with a moderate risk of local transmission of dengue fever.From July to October,a total of 20 cities/states would have a moderate risk of local transmission of dengue fever.Conclusions In 2025,there will still be imported cases of dengue fever in Sichuan Province.From July to October,special attention should be paid to the local transmission of dengue fever.It is recommended to adopt comprehensive measures such as joint prevention and control,epidemic monitoring,standardized disposal and health education.Trend analysis and risk assessment should be carried out in a timely manner according to the situation.
Keywords：dengue feverrisk assessmentimportedlocal transmission
Publication Date：2025-10-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-11-04(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 596-601 )