Analysis of a predictive SARIMA model for new dengue fever cases and mosquito vector density in Shenzhen
LIN Liangqiang
KONG dongfeng
XIANG Lanbin
CHEN Zhigao
QING Yanmin
LIU Yang
LI Jianfeng
LI Yuan
Abstract：Objective To analyze and predict the incidence trend of dengue fever and mosquito ovitrap index(MOI)for Aedes albopictus in Shenzhen using the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model.Methods Monthly data of dengue fever and MOI were obtained from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2018.The SARIMA model was performed with SPSS 20.0 and Eviews 9.0 statistical software.The data collected from January to December 2018 were used to validate the model through the comparison between the actual and the predicted value.Results The incidence of dengue fever and MOI showed obvious periodicity and seasonality in Shenzhen.The SARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)12and the SARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,1)12 were developed to predict the monthly incidence of dengue fever and MOI,respectively.The predictive values generated by the two different SARIMA models were generally consistent with the actual values;with the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 175.74%and the mean absolute error(MAE)of 10.59 in the incidence model,and the MAPE of 41.63%and the MAE of 1.538 in the MOI model.Conclusion Both SARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)12 and SARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,1)12 models can be applied to predict the occurrence and transmission of dengue fever in Shenzhen.
Keywords：dengue fevermosquito ovitrap index(MOI)SARIMA modeltime series analysis
Publication Date：2025-04-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 210-216,225 )