Analysis on the incidence trend and age-period-cohort of dengue fever in China from 2005 to 2020
ZHANG Manman
LUO Zhenghan
WANG Chunfang
WANG Taiwu
ZHANG Jinhai
Abstract：Objective To analyze the incidence trend of dengue fever and its epidemiological characteristics with age,period and birth cohort in China from 2005 to 2020,so as to provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever in China.Methods The incidence data of dengue fever in China from 2005 to 2020 were collected from the Chinese Public Health Science Data Center and the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)Study Database 2021.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze incidence trends of dengue fever.The age-period-cohort model was used to investigate the effects of age,period and cohort characteristics on the incidence of dengue fever.Results The incidence of dengue fever in China was on the rise.The cumulative number of cases gradually decreased from south to north,with the largest number of cases in Guangdong Province(63 568 cases)and Yunnan Province(14 167 cases).Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the overall incidence of dengue fever showed a monotonic upward trend from 2005 to 2020,with an average annual increase of 30.65%.Age-period-cohort model analysis showed that age,period and cohort all had significant effects on the incidence of dengue fever.The age effect showed that the incidence increased first and then decreased with age,and the highest incidence was found in the 60-65 age group(0.313/100 000).Period effect showed that the risk of dengue fever with the passage of time to show the first after rising downward trend.The cohort effect was relatively stable.In addition,a comprehensive comparison of the incidence of dengue fever in China estimated by GBD and the incidence of dengue fever reported by the China Public Health Science Data Center showed that the overall trend between the two was similar,but there were large differences in the values.Conclusion The incidence of dengue fever showed an upward trend in China from 2005 to 2020.It is necessary to strengthen the intervention of vectors in key areas and the protection of high-risk groups,and formulate targeted measures to reduce the disease burden caused by dengue fever in China.
Keywords：dengue feverincidenceJoinpoint modelage-period-cohort model
Publication Date：2025-04-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 136-141 )