An analysis of fly ecological surveillance in Dongcheng District,Beijing,from 2009 to 2019 and exploration of its prediction methods
WEI Xuqiang
LI Qiuhong
MA Zhuo
QUE Ran
WANG Yunbo
ZHOU Xiaojie
Abstract：Objective To investigate the fly species,density,distribution and seasonal fluctuation in Dongcheng District,Beijing,from 2009-2019,and to explore the method of fly density prediction based on ecological surveillance,so as to provide a basis for the prediction and scientific prevention and control of flies in Dongcheng District.Methods The ecological surveillance data of fly species in Dongcheng District from 2009 to 2019 were collected and analyzed;the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model(SARIMA)constructed with MATLAB R2018b software was used to predict the fly density in April-October 2019 and compared with the actual surveillance values to verify the model prediction effect,to verify the model prediction effect.Results The annual mean density of flies at each ecological surveillance site in Dongcheng District from 2009 to 2019 was 7.09 flies/cage,and the dominant fly species was the Sarcophagidae,accounting for 56.82％of the total number of captured flies,and the fly species that accounted for more than 5％of the total number of captured flies,in the order of their percentage,were Muscina stabulans(11.74％),Musca domestica(10.17％),Lucilia sericata(8.99％),and Chrysomya megacephala(6.93％);among different habitats,the highest fly density was 11.86 flies/cage in hotels,and the lowest was 2.20 flies/cage in catering outside environments,and Sarcophagidae was the dominant species in different habitats;the peak of fly density mainly occurred in July and August.The optimal model SARIMA(0,1,4)(2,1,3)12 constructed based on historical ecological surveillance data predicted that the fly densities in April-October 2019 were basically consistent with the actual densities,and the actual surveillance values all fell within the 95％confidence intervals of the predicted values,and the model evaluation indexes root mean square error(RMSE)and mean absolute error(MAE)were 1.379 and 1.014,respectively,and the prediction effect was good.Conclusion From 2009 to 2019,the dominant species in Dongcheng District of Beijing was Sarcophagidae,and hotels were the key places for fly control,with the peak of activity occurring mainly in July-August;by evaluating the effect of the SARIMA model,the method can be used for predicting short-term changes in the trend of fly density.
Keywords：fly densityseasonal autoregressive integratedmoving average model(SARIMA)predictiondensity monitoring
Publication Date：2024-06-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 262-267 )