Analysis of the epidemic trend of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in China from 2005 to 2021

SU Yongjian; LIANG Jinliang; ZHANG Jiawei; ZHAO Wenwen; DAI Shiyan; LI Hai

doi:10.19821/j.1671-2781.2023.06.013

Abstract：Objective To investigate the long-term trend of the incidence of epidemic hemorrhagic fever(EHF)in China from 2005 to 2021,so as to provide a scientific reference basis for improving the preventive and control measures of hemorrhagic fever.Methods Establish a data set of the incidence of EHF in China from 2005 to 2021.A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of EHF incidence in the whole country,regions and age groups.Results A total of 192 066 cases of EHF were reported in China from 2005 to 2021,with an average annual incidence rate of 0.834 5/100 000;1 752 cases died,with an average annual incidence rate of 0.007 6/100000 and an average annual morbidity and mortality rate of 0.912 2%.The incidence of EHF in China from 2005 to 2021 showed a decreasing trend with an average annual percentage change(AAPC)of-5.56%(P=0.017).Among them,the year 2008 and 2012 were the turning points of the trend of the incidence of EHF.With a decreasing trend between 2005 and 2008,withanannualpercentagechange(APC)of-26.92%(P=0.001);a stable trend between 2008 and 2012,with an APC of 10.61%(P= 0.224);and a decreasing trend between 2012 and 2021,with an APC of-4.11%(P = 0.016).From 2005 to 2018,reported cases of EHF in China were mainly concentrated in northeastern China,with the top five regions in terms of number of cases being Heilongjiang,Shaanxi,Shandong,Liaoning,and Jilin provinces.The incidence of EHF in 9 regions showed a decreasing trend(all P＜0.05),that in 4 regions showed an increasing trend(all P＜0.05),and that in the remaining 14 regions showed a stable trend(all P＞0.05).Cases occurred in all age groups,mainly concentrated in 25-64 years old(accounting for 79.86%of all cases),and the age group of 40-44 years old with the highest proportion(accounting for 12.75%).The incidence of EHF in 7 age groups showed a decreasing trend(all P＜0.05),the 1-year-old group showed an increasing trend(P＜0.05),and the other age groups were stable(all P＞0.05).Conclusion From 2005 to 2021,the incidence of EHF in China showed an overall decreasing trend,but the incidence in Heilongjiang,Shaanxi,Shandong,Liaoning,Jilin and other key regions is still at a high level,the decline rate is small,and the epidemic risk still exists.Prevention and control should be strengthened in key areas and groups,and surveillance of cases and local host animals should be carried out continuously.According to the actual local situation,precise and comprehensive prevention and control measures have been formulated and implemented to reduce the epidemic intensity,morbidity and mortality of EHF.