The forecast on larvae densities of Aedes albopictus in a western city based on ARIMA multiple seasonal models
ZHAO Ke-chang
YANG Jin-yu
LU Yan-song
FENG Peng-cai
SHANGGUAN Chao-liang
Abstract：Objective To forecast on larvae densities ofAedes albopictus in 2017 based on ARIMA multiple seasonal model in a western city.Methods A multiple seasonal ARIMA model was established by using the " Expert Modeler" of SPSS 20.0 based on monitoring data of Aedes albopictus larvae in a western city from January 2012 to December 2016.The model was used to predict the fluctuation tendency of Aedes albopictus larvae in 2017.Results The noise of residual series of the ARIMA (1,0,0) × (0,1,0) 12 model were white,which indicated that the ARIMA model was credible and fitting the series well.According to the ARIMA model,the Breteau index of Aedes albopictus was higher than 5 from May to October in 2017,and the major peak season would be in July to October (9.9,8.2,11.3 and 9.33 respectively).Conclusion The multiple seasonal ARIMA model established by "Expert Modeler" was potential to predict the fluctuation tendency of Aedes albopictus larvae with a good fit.It was necessary to pay attention to the monitor and killing of Aedes albopictus and the prevention and control of vector-borne diseases of Aedes albopictus.
Keywords：Aedes albopictus larvaeBreteau indexexpert modelerARIMA modelprediction
Publication Date：2018-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 36-39 )