Application and risk assessment of exotic medical-vector captured in the international navigation ships
QIU Jiong-liang
LU Hou-lin
ZHOU Li-pei
SUN Zhi
ZHENG Jian-ning
SHI Hui-xiang
YANG Ding-bo
Abstract：Objective To apply the random forests model on the risk assessment of exotic medical-vector captured in the international navigation ships based on R language.Methods Ningbo Port as the No.2 in China and No.5 in the world was selected as the researching area,and the arrival international navigation ships in 2014 were selected as the researching objects.33 indexes were surveyed for 6 051 arrival vessels.Random forests model was employed for the training and calculation.1 333 new-arrival vessels were used for the prediction by the model.Results There were eight variables including gross tonnage,net tonnage,years old of vessel,cargoes et al related with the prediction of exotic vectors on the vessels.The model with 3 variables of nodes and 500 decision trees was concluded as the optimal prediction model.The predictive condition was good as the according rate attained 81.17％.Conclusion The relatively exact prediction is to be realized based on random forests model,especially for the highly uncertain nonlinear system.So the model can provide the theoretical basis for the risk analysis and alert of health quarantine.
Keywords：random forestexotic medical vectorsrisk predictionR languagebig data
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 230-234 )