Application of risk assessment of exotic medical-vector in the international navigation ships
QIU Jiong-liang
SUN Zhi
WANG Jun
ZHENG Jian-ning
YANG Ding-bo
Abstract：Objective To apply the support vector machines (SVM) on the risk assessment of exotic medical-vectors in the international navigation ships based on R language.Methods The Ningbo Port as the No.2 in China and No.5 in the global world was regarded as the researching area,and the arrival international navigation ships in 2014 were regarded as the researching objects.33 indexes were surveyed for 834 vector-positive vessels and 2 151 vector-negative vessels.SVM model was employed for the training and calculation.1 333 new-arrival vessels were used for the prediction by the model.Results Twelve SVM models were constructed and compared according to the index of predicting accuracy.Finally,the SVM model with the parameters of nu-classification and Gaussian function was screened out as the optimal model.Then the nonlinear relationship model was fixed between the risks of importing exotic medical vectors and the factors of international navigation ship based on the corresponding SVM.The correct rate of the training was 78.89％.The predictive condition was good as the according rate attained 82.52％.Conclusion The relatively exact prediction could be executed based on SVM model,especially for the highly uncertain nonlinear system.So the model can provide the theoretical basis for the risk analysis and alert of health quarantine.
Keywords：support vector machinesexotic medical vectorsrisk predictionR languagebig data
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 123-127 )