Incidence trends of idiopathic epilepsy in the elderly population in China from 1990 to 2021 and prediction
GONG Shun
ZHANG Bingying
HAO Guangzhi
LIU Haihui
HAN Yuwei
Abstract：Objective To analyze the incidence trends of idiopathic epilepsy in the elderly population in China from 1990 to 2021,examining changes across different age groups,and to predict future trends over the next 20 years to inform public health policy decisions.Methods Joinpoint regression model was applied on the data from the Global Burden of Disease database to identify inflection points in incidence trends.The age-period-cohort model was used to examine age,period,and cohort effects on epilepsy incidence,and the Nordpred model was employed to project future incidence trends.Results Between 1990 and 2021,the incidence of idiopathic epilepsy in the elderly showed a slow initial increase,followed by a decline from 2004 to 2019,and then a sharp rise from 2019 to 2021,particularly pronounced among those aged 85 and above.Projections indicated that by 2044,the incidence rate will continue to rise,with a notable increase in the number of cases,indicating a growing burden of epilepsy among the elderly each year.Conclusions This study reveals a significant upward trend in idiopathic epilepsy incidence among the elderly in China,with a heavier burden among the oldest age groups.Enhanced monitoring and preventive measures for the elderly,especially for those in advanced age,are recommended.Additionally,efforts should be made to improve diagnostic capacities in community and rural areas and to establish robust social support systems to address the public health challenges posed by epilepsy.
Keywords：idiopathic epilepsyelderly populationincidence trendspredictionage-period-cohort model
Publication Date：2026-03-28
Online Publishing Date：2026-03-26(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 42-48 )