Central nervous system tumors in global adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2021:disease burden and its trend prediction

HAO Guangzhi; SU Fanfan; ZHANG Jianhui; DONG Yushu; TONG Jiayu; HE Xu

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-2897.2026.02.005

Abstract：Objective To analyze the global incidence trend of central nervous system(CNS)tumors in adolescents and young adults around the world from 1990～2021,with an emphasis on the influence mechanism of age,period and cohort,and predict the incidence trend in 2022～2044.Methods The 2021 Global Burden of Disease database included worldwide CNS tumor data in adolescents and young adults.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of standardized incidence of CNS tumors in adolescents and young adults around the world from 1990～2021.At the same time,the age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the effects of age,period and cohort on the incidence of CNS tumors in adolescents and young adults around the world.The Nordpred package using R language was used to predict the trend of this disease burden in 2022～2044.Results The incidence of CNS tumors in adolescents and young adults increased by 62.51%in 1990～2021,and the standardized incidence showed a fluctuating upward trend(AAPC=0.61%,P<0.01,the trend change was statistically significant).Based on the comparison of gender perspectives,it was found that although the increase in women was larger,the male group was higher than the female in terms of the number of cases,crude incidence and standardized incidence.Analysis of the age-period-cohort model showed that the age,period and cohort effects all showed an increasing trend.The prediction results show that the incidence of CNS tumors in adolescents and young adults would continue to increase in 2022～2044.Conclusions The incidence of CNS tumors in adolescents and young adults increased year by year from 1990～2021,and it is predicted that the number of cases will continue to increase in the future,and the disease burden situation is severe.