Influencing factors and risk prediction model for deep vein thrombosis in perioperative patients undergoing craniocerebral trauma surgery

LI Yan; ZHANG Xize; LV Zhifeng; DING Hongfu; JIAN Li

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-2897.2026.01.013

Abstract：Objective To investigate the influencing factors of deep vein thrombosis in perioperative patients undergoing craniocerebral trauma surgery and construct a risk prediction model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 200 patients who underwent craniocerebral trauma surgery at the First Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Chinese Medicine from May 2023 to May 2025.The data of another 145 patients admitted to the same hospital from May 2023 to December 2024 were used for model construction(modeling group).The data of 55 patients admitted from January 2025 to May 2025 were used for the external validation of the model(validation group).Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the influencing factors of deep vein thrombosis in perioperative patients undergoing craniocerebral trauma surgery and establish a risk prediction model.The goodness of fit and predictive efficacy of the model were verified by using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results Factor analysis showed that age,time from injury to surgery,the use of vasoactive drugs,and plasma D-dimer were the influencing factors of deep vein thrombosis in perioperative patients undergoing craniocerebral trauma surgery.Based on the above factors,a risk prediction model for deep vein thrombosis in perioperative patients undergoing craniocerebral trauma surgery was constructed.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed that χ2=11.303,P=0.185;the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.952[95%CI(0.905,0.998)];the maximum Youden index of the model was 0.759,the optimal cut-off value was 0.5270,the sensitivity was 0.966,and the specificity was 0.793.The risk prediction model was verified.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the verification group was 0.883[95%CI(0.765,0.991)],the sensitivity was 0.773,and the specificity was 0.909.Overall,it indicated that the model had a high predictive accuracy for the occurrence of DVT.Conclusion The risk prediction model for deep vein thrombosis in perioperative patients undergoing craniocerebral trauma surgery has a relatively good predictive effect.