Incidence trends of tension-type headache among chinese adolescents(1990-2021):a study based on joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort model
FEI Shuang
DONG Yushu
HAO Guangzhi
HE Xu
ZOU Zheng
Abstract：Objective To analyze the incidence trends of tension-type headache among Chinese adolescents and young adults(aged 15 to 39)from 1990 to 2021 and to explore the effects of age,period,and cohort on the variation in incidence rates.Methods The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the changes in incidence rates from 1990 to 2021.By segmenting the time trend into distinct periods,the annual percentage change(APC)for each period and the average annual percentage change across the entire study period were calculated.Additionally,the age-period-cohort model was employed to conduct a three-dimensional analysis of the incidence risk for adolescents and young adults aged 15 to 39,categorizing birth cohorts and calculating the corresponding rate ratio(RR).Results The incidence of tension-type headaches decreased by about 12%.During the same period,the crude and standardized incidence rates of adolescents and young adults increased.However,in the stages of 2000-2005 and 2018-2021,the incidence fluctuated,and the APC values were 1.99%and 1.12%respectively.The incidence was consistently higher in women than in men,and this trend was stable.In the analysis of period effect,the risk of morbidity during 2002-2006 was the most stable,and the risk had rebounded in recent years.The birth cohort effect showed that the birth cohort had the highest RR of 1.128 in 2002.Conclusions Although the overall incidence of TTH in adolescents and young adults showed a downward trend during 1990-2021,the incidence rate still rebounds periodically,and the risk of birth cohort increases in recent years.Therefore,there is a need to strengthen TTH intervention and prevention in adolescents and young adults to improve long-term health.
Keywords：tension-type headacheadolescentsyoung adultsjoinpoint regression modelage-period-cohort model
Publication Date：2026-01-28
Online Publishing Date：2026-01-17(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 28-33 )