Global trends and age-period-cohort model analysis of migraine incidence in adolescents and young adults
SHI Zuolin
ZHANG Bingying
ZHOU Xiaohu
Dong Yushu
SHA Na
Abstract：Objective To investigate the changes in migraine incidence in adolescents and young adults by using the Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort model so as to provide reference for related health policies.Methods The data on migraine incidence from 1990 to 2021were taken from the Global Burden of Diseases(GBD)database.The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trends in migraine incidence,and Wald χ² tests were utilized to assess differences in migraine incidence across different age groups,time periods,and birth cohorts.Data organization was conducted using Excel,while statistical analyses were performed using Joinpoint 4.9.0.1 software and R language analysis tools,with a significance level set at α=0.05.Results Data analysis indicated significant changes in migraine incidence among adolescents and young adults between 1990 and 2021.The annual percent change(APC)fluctuated in different time periods,while the average annual percentage change(AAPC)was 0.04,indicating an overall slow growth trend.The age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)in the male population increased the most from 2015 to 2019,with an APC value of 0.51%.The largest increase in ASIR in the female population was recorded in 2000-2004,with an APC value of 0.17%.Comparisons of different age groups showed that the overall incidence was higher in females than in males,and that the incidence of the sexes showed alternating variations over different time periods.Birth cohort risk analysis indicated that the years 1972-1981 represented a critical turning point for incidence risk between males and females,with a subsequent increase in male risk and a decrease in female risk.Conclusions The migraine incidence among global adolescents is undergoing significant changes,with notable differences in trends and risks between males and females.The findings of this study provide important references for the formulation of public health policies,which will help improve the health status of this population and reduce the burden of migraines,necessitating further attention and intervention in this field.
Keywords：migrainejoinpoint modelincidenceannual percent change model
Publication Date：2025-12-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-12-02(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 28-33 )