Incidence trend and age-period-cohort model of intracerebral hemorrhage in global adolescent population from 1990 to 2021

DING Yueming; ZHANG Bingying; DONG Yushu; HE Xu; JIANG Chengguo

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-2897.2025.05.004

Abstract：Objective To analyze the incidence trends of intracerebral hemorrhage among the global adolescent population from 1990 to 2021,and examine its associations with age,period,and cohort effects in order to provide a reference for developing effective prevention and control strategies.Methods Data were sourced from the GBD 2021 database to extract incidence rates,crude incidence rates,and standardized incidence rates of intracerebral hemorrhage within the global adolescent population(aged 15-39).The temporal trend of incidence from 1990 to 2021 was analyzed by using Joinpoint software.Annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated,and,an age-period-cohort model was employed to investigate the effects of age,period,and birth cohort on incidence.Results Analysis via Joinpoint software indicated that between 1990 and 2021,both total population-adjusted and sex-standardized incidences of intracerebral hemorrhage exhibited a declining trend among the global adolescent population.The AAPC was-1.19%for the overall population,-0.86%for males,and-1.60%for females-each demonstrating statistical significance(P<0.001).Notably,during the period from 2014 to 2019 there was an increase in overall incidence(APC=0.15,P<0.05),with men consistently at higher risk than women throughout this timeframe.Findings from the age-period-cohort model revealed that globally between 1992 and 2021 as adolescents became older,their risk of intracerebral hemorrhage increased,especially among males aged between 35-39 years old their rate of intracerebral hemorrhage incidence reached approximately 1.78 times greater than those observed in females within the same age bracket.Furthermore,it was noted that later birth cohorts experienced lower disease risks associated with advancing age at diagnosis.Conclusion There are overall fluctuations characterized by a general decline of incidences of intracerebral hemorrhage among adolescents worldwide from 1990 to 2021,whereas there are increases during specific intervals such as those occurring between 2014 and 2019.Men consistently demonstrate higher incidences compared to women,which significantly escalate alongside increased age.Therefore,it is recommended to strengthen the prevention and control of intracerebral hemorrhage in the male population.