Incidence trend and age-period-cohort model of subarachnoid hemorrhage mortality in elderly population in China from 1990 to 2021
SHI Zuolin
DONG Yushu
ZHOU Xiaohu
HAO Guangzhi
Abstract：Objective To analyze the trend of subarachnoid hemorrhage(SAH)mortality among the elderly population in China from 1990 to 2021 so as to explore the impact of age,period,and cohort factors on SAH mortality risk.Methods Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study data,the number of deaths,crude mortality rates,and standardized mortality rates of SAH among the elderly population in China from 1990 to 2021were analyzed.Joinpoint regression models were used to analyze the trend of standardized mortality rates and to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC).Age-period-cohort models were employed to examine the effects of age,period,and birth cohort on SAH mortality.The Nordpred model was used to predict the trend of SAH mortality in China up to 2044.Results The Joinpoint regression model indicated that the standardized mortality rate of SAH among the elderly in China decreased from 1990 to 2021,with an average annual decrease of 5.55%(P<0.01).However,since 2007,there has been an annual increase in the number of deaths.The age-period-cohort model showed that the risk of SAH mortality among the elderly in China from 1990 to 2021 first increased and then decreased with aging.Over this period,the risk of SAH mortality decreased over time,with later-born cohorts having a lower risk.Conclusion From 1990 to 2021,significant progress was made in the prevention and control of SAH among the elderly in China,as evidenced by the decreasing mortality rate.However,in recent years,the number of SAH deaths among the elderly has been increasing annually,and there are notable differences in mortality rates across different age and sex groups.Therefore,more targeted measures are needed to protect high-risk populations and further reduce the disease burden of SAH in the elderly in China.
Keywords：Subarachnoid hemorrhageJoinpoint regressionAge-period-cohort modelPredictive analysisDisease burden
Publication Date：2025-08-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 48-54 )