The risk factors analysis of thrombosis in patients with essential thrombocythemia and construction of a nomogram prediction model
Zheng Maofeng
Li Yujin
Niu Jicong
Sun Yan
Lyu Yan
Liu Weiyi
Wang Mingjing
Chen Yang
Hu Xiaomei
Abstract：Objective To explore the risk factors of thrombosis in patients with essential thrombocythemia(ET)and to construct a visual risk prediction model.Methods The clinical data of 156 ET patients admitted to Xiyuan Hospital,China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences from January 2022 to December 2024 were retro-spectively analyzed.According to the presence or absence of thrombosis,the patients were divided into thrombosis group(44 cases)and non-thrombosis group(112 cases).Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression methods were used to analyze the risk factors of thrombosis,and a risk prediction model was constructed.Results The proportion of age ≥60 years,hypertension and hyperlipidemia,JAK2 mutation,white blood cell count,neutrophil count(NEUT),and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in the thrombosis group were significantly higher than those in the non-thrombosis group(all P＜0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥ 60 years(odds ratio=3.08,95％confidence interval:1.20-7.92),splenomegaly(odds ratio=3.04,95％confidence interval:1.06-8.71),hyperlipidemia(odds ratio=3.06,95％confidence interval:1.20-7.80)and high NEUT(odds ratio=1.35,95％confidence interval:1.20-1.52)were independent risk factors for thrombosis in ET patients(all P＜0.05).Based on the results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis,a nomogram model was constructed to predict the risk of thrombosis in ET patients.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.922(95％confidence interval:0.834-0.971),the specificity was 81.3％,the sensitivity was 93.2％,and the Youden index was 0.744.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit testx2=6.32,P=0.612.The calibration curve showed that the predicted probability of the model was in good agreement with the observed frequency.Conclusion Elevated NEUT,age ≥60 years,hyperlipidemia and splenomegaly are independent risk factors for thrombosis in ET patients.The nomogram model based on these factors has a good predictive ability and can be used as an important tool for thrombosis risk stratification and clinical decision-making in ET patients.
Keywords：Essential thrombocythemiaThrombosisRisk factorsNeutrophilsNomogram
Publication Date：2025-12-18
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-14(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 1824-1829 )