Optimization of risk management and control paths for water conservancy safety production based on Bowtie analysis model
ZHANG Zuyuan
Abstract：As an important subject of water conservancy safety production management,safety risk management and control is also a scientific and systematic project,imposing relatively high requirements on professionalism and practicality.In daily practice,risk management and control of water conservancy safety production is generally simplified and modeled;the focus of management and control is not prominent;the management and control measures are unreasonable,which restricts the effectiveness of accident prevention to varying degrees.To improve the risk management and control effectiveness of water conservancy safety production,this paper integrates the"six mechanisms"of risk management and control for water conservancy safety production with the Bowtie analysis model.By centering on the evolution path of"hazard sources,top events,and accident consequences",the Bowtie analysis model of water conservancy safety production risk is built based on the safety barrier theory.Firstly,top events(high-frequency common events)are identified.By taking the top events as the center,the hazard sources that lead to the top events are sorted out item by item forward,and preventive barriers are set.Meanwhile,the accident consequence path is deduced item by item backward,and mitigation barriers are set.Then,an evaluation index system is established for the built model,and the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the management and control effect.Finally,the barrier configuration is optimized according to the evaluation results.By taking the collapse,roof fall,and spalling accident of a trunk canal tunnel group construction project as an example,the model is adopted for verification.The results show that the Bowtie analysis model can significantly improve the systematicness and pertinence of barriers,and promote the implementation of the"six mechanisms"in hazard source early warning,prevention,and disposal.This path offers a systematic and visual risk management tool,which can serve as a reference for risk management and control practices of safety production in various water conservancy production and operation units.
Keywords：water conservancy safety productionBowtie analysis modelrisk management and controlevaluation indexeffect evaluation
Publication Date：2026-02-28
Online Publishing Date：2026-03-17(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 45-51 )