Insights and reflections on basic laws and strategic assessment of water use in China
ZHAO Yong
HE Guohua
WANG Jianhua
HE Fan
LI Wenqing
Abstract：The evolution of water use trends is closely related to the overall landscape of economic and social development and ecological civilization construction,directly impacting the overarching pattern of major water resources projects.Since China's water consumption statistics peaked in 2013,debates have emerged regarding the existence of driving forces behind water demand growth and the future trajectory of water use,necessitating systematic responses.By summarizing recent research findings,this study presents ten understandings and reflections on critical issues such as whether water demand has peaked,how it will evolve,and when the peak will occur.The study suggests that water use differs from water demand;current actual water consumption is influenced by multiple factors,including supply-side constraints,exhibiting characteristics of zero growth.However,with changes in consumption structure upgrades,urbanization advancement,and increasing instability in international trade,China's water demand still has room for growth.It is essential to enhance water supply security through measures such as continuously promoting water conservation and constructing national water network projects.Considering the most stringent water resource management system,economic development needs,and existing project planning system,it is predicted that China's water demand peak will be approximately 640 billion to 650 billion cubic meters,with the extreme point likely to occur between 2035 and 2040,indicating a growth period of about ten years.
Keywords：water use patternwater use peakwater demandsupply side
Publication Date：2025-05-12
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：13( 1-13 )