Estimation of population exposure to urban flooding in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area under extreme rainfall
Liu Zhiyong
Chen Xiaohong
Lin Kairong
Tu Xinjun
Zhao Tongtiegang
She Zhenyan
Abstract：This study develops a method for assessing population exposure to urban flooding based on a multidimensional conditional probability model,focusing on the nine cities of the Pearl River Delta in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA).The estimation of population exposure was conducted under moderate greenhouse gas emission scenarios(SSP2-4.5)and various rainfall intensities for the period 2030-2100.The results indicate that under moderate heavy rainfall scenarios,the maximum population density exposure to urban flooding in the GBA will exceed 6000 people/km2.Under extreme rainfall scenarios,the maximum population exposure to urban flooding could reach 8000 to 12 000 people/km2.Furthermore,under extreme rainfall impacts,the western part of Guangzhou,the Guangzhou-Foshan border area,most parts of Shenzhen,and the Dongguan-Shenzhen border area will consistently be high-risk zones for urban flood exposure in the GBA,with an average population exposure exceeding 3500 people/km2.These findings provide scientific support for developing comprehensive flood prevention strategies and enhancing urban flood resilience in the GBA.
Keywords：Copulaheavy rainfallexposure to floodingSSP2-4.5climate changeGuangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
Publication Date：2024-07-12
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 34-38 )