Study on the risk evolution mechanism of dam failure combined with historical dam failure statistics
Li Hongen
Wang Fang
Zhao Jianguo
Abstract：With the improvement of dam management level and the promotion of reinforcement work,China has entered the ranks of countries with low dam break rate in the world.However,under the background of global climate change,dam accidents and even dam failures still occur from time to time.The risk of dam failure in China is studied from three aspects:statistical analysis,case study and text mining.The main research results include:based on the historical data since 1954,the main causes and the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of dam failure are analyzed;the calculation method of correlation degree of dam failure risk events and disaster chain evolution probability are put forward though text mining method,a Bayesian model construction method suitable for dam failure risk analysis is proposed and an improved Bayesian model is established based on system dynamics theory.The research results have reference significance for further strengthening the dam risk management level and the construction of disaster prevention and reduction system.
Keywords：damsrisk analysisdam failuretext mining
Publication Date：2024-04-27
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 40-45 )