Construction of a nomogram prediction model for new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation in elderly patients with acute type A aortic dissection
ZHOU Jiawang
HU Zhendong
QIU Zongli
WANG Qi
Abstract：Objective To construct a nomogram prediction model for new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation(POAF)in elderly patients with acute type A aortic dissection(ATAAD).Methods A total of 150 elderly ATAAD patients undergoing surgical treatment in our department from May 2023 to May 2025 were recruited,and based on whether POAF occurred or not,they were divided into a POAF group(n=67)and a non-POAF group(n=83).A nomogram model for POAF risk in elderly ATAAD patients was constructed using R software.ROC curves were plotted to evaluate the discrimination of the model for POAF in elderly ATAAD patients.Results The POAF group had significantly more advanced age,longer cardiopulmonary bypass time(CPBT),and higher C-reactive protein(CRP)levels and left atrial diameter(LAD)than the non-POAF group(P＜0.01).Age,CPBT,CRP,and LAD were risk factors for POAF in elderly ATAAD patients(P＜0.05).The risk nomogram model for POAF in elderly ATAAD patients was constructed using R software,with a sensitivity of 79.10％,a specificity of 87.95％,and an area under the curve of 0.832(95％CI:0.762-0.903).Conclusion New-onset POAF in elderly ATAAD patients is related to age,CPBT,CRP,and LAD.Our nomogram prediction model for POAF constructed based on these factors has good predictive performance for POAF occurrence in elderly ATAAD patients.
Keywords：atrial fibrillationnomogramsaneurysmdissectingforecasting
Publication Date：2026-03-15
Online Publishing Date：2026-03-31(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 330-333 )