Predictive value of coronary artery calcium score combined with serum indicators for prognosis of stable coronary artery disease

Yang Qian; Hu Qiong; Yang Li; Feng Ying

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-0126.2025.10.008

Abstract：Objective To explore the predictive value of coronary artery calcium score(CACS)combined with C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 12(CXCL12)and soluble CD40 ligand(sCD40L)for major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE)within 5 years in patients with stable coronary artery disease(SCAD).Methods A total of 206 elderly SCAD patients admitted in our depart-ment from March 2015 to November 2018 were recruited,and according to whether MACE occurred within 5 years of follow-up,they were divided into MACE group(42 cases)and control group(164 cases).Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the inde-pendent predictors of MACE.ROC curve analysis was applied to evaluate the predictive value of the combined model,and its area under curve(AUC)value was calculated.Results Compared with the control group,the MACE group had significantly older age,larger proportions of hyper-tension and diabetes mellitus,higher CACS,and elevated CXCL12 and sCD40L levels(P＜0.05,P＜0.01).Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age,hypertension,diabetes melli-tus,CACS,CXCL12 and sCD40L were independent risk factors for MACE in the elderly SCAD patients within 5 years(P＜0.05,P＜0.01).ROC curve analysis indicated that the AUC value of CACS,CXCL12,sCD40L,and these three indicators combined together in predicting MACE in elderly SCAD patients within 5 years was 0.872(95％CI:0.819-0.915),0.768(95％CI:0.704-0.824),0.726(95％CI:0.660-0.786),and 0.935(95％CI:0.893-0.965),respectively,with the value of the combination obviously higher than that of each indicator alone(P＜0.01).Conclusion Increased CACS,CXCL12 and sCD40L have predictive value for MACE in elderly SCAD patients,and the combination of the three indicators has obvious advantages in the prediction.