Predictive value of a nomogram model based on clinical risk factors for ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation
Wei Xiaohui
Zhang Yi
Li Xiaoyun
Song Li
Abstract：Objective To explore the risk factors for ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrilla-tion(AF)and construct a prediction model.Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 253 AF patients treated at our hospital from January 2021 to December 2024.They were randomly divided into a modeling group(n=177)and a validation group(n=76)in a 7∶3 ratio.The model-ing group was further divided into a simple AF subgroup(96 cases)and a stroke subgroup(81 cases)based on the occurrence of ischemic stroke.Clinical data were collected,including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol,red cell distribution width(RDW),D-dimer,fibrinogen,N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide(NT-proBNP),high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I(hs-cTnI),etc.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for ischemic stroke,and a nomogram model was constructed.The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using ROC curve analysis,calibration curve analysis,and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that left atrial diameter(OR=1.205,95％CI:1.046-1.388,P=0.010),RDW(OR=1.605,95％CI:1.138-2.263,P=0.007),D-dimer(OR=2.633,95％CI:1.229-5.640,P=0.013),fibrinogen(OR=3.053,95％CI:1.312-7.108,P=0.010),NT-proBNP(OR=1.005,95％CI:1.003-1.007,P=0.001),and hs-cTnI(OR=1.129,95％CI:1.046-1.218,P=0.002)were independent risk factors for ischemic stroke in AF patients.ROC curve analysis showed an AUC value of 0.926(95％CI:0.885-0.967)for the modeling group and 0.912(95％CI:0.847-0.978)for the validation group.H-L test showed Chi-square=8.005,P=0.433 for the modeling group and Chi-square=2.590,P=0.957 for the validation group.DC A demonstrated high practical value for the model.Conclusion The nomo-gram model constructed in the study has good predictive performance and clinical utility.
Keywords：atrial fibrillationischemic strokerisk factorsforecasting
Publication Date：2025-09-15
Online Publishing Date：2025-09-29(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 1246-1251 )