Nomogram prediction model of cerebral vasospasm risk after interventional embolization of elderly intracranial aneurysms
Wu Haiyan
Xiang Mo
Liao Chantong
Chen Shuijie
Wang Huiqian
Abstract：Objective To investigate the factors affecting cerebral vasospasm in elderly patients af-ter interventional embolization of intracranial aneurysms,and to develop a nomogram prediction model.Methods A total of 307 elderly patients with intracranial aneurysms who underwent inter-ventional embolization in our hospital from May 2021 to May 2023 were recruited,and according to the occurrence of postoperative cerebral vasospasm or not,they were divided into a cerebral vasospasm group(n=63)and a non-cerebral vasospasm group(n=244).The general clinical data were compared between two groups.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors for postoperative cerebral vasospasm in elderly patients with in-tracranial aneurysms,and then a nomogram prediction model was constructed.Results There were significant differences between the two groups in terms of age,Hunt-Hess grade,Fisher grade,and time window for surgical treatment(P＜0.01).The cerebral vasospasm group had sig-nificantly higher WBC count and IL-1β and Caspase-3 levels than the non-cerebral vasospasm group(P＜0.01).Univariate logistics regression analysis showed that seven indicators,that is,aged≥65 years,Hunt-Hess grade Ⅲ-Ⅵ,Fisher grade Ⅲ-Ⅵ,later surgical start time and in-creased WBC count and IL-1β and Caspase-3 levels were risk factors for postoperative cerebral vasospasm(P＜0.05).Multivariate logistics regression analysis indicated that above seven indica-tors were still independent risk factors for postoperative cerebral vasospasm(OR=11.372,95％CI:4.032-32.073,P=0.000;OR=12.415,95％CI:4.979-30.959,P=0.000;OR=9.568,95％CI:3.945-23.206,P=0.000;OR=2.898,95％CI:1.217-6.901,P=0.016;OR=1.762,95％CI:1.125-2.761,P=0.013;OR=1.153,95％CI:1.035-1.283,P=0.009).ROC curve analysis re-vealed that the AUC value of the nomogram model in predicting postoperative cerebral vasospasm was 0.934,with a sensitivity of 85.40％and a specificity of 90.50％.Conclusion Aged≥65 years,Hunt-Hess grade Ⅲ-Ⅵ,Fisher grade Ⅲ-Ⅵ,later surgical start time and increased WBC count and IL-1β and Caspase-3 levels have adverse effects on postoperative cerebral vasospasm in in eld-erly patients after interventional embolization of intracranial aneurysms.The nomogram model based on these factors shows certain efficacy in evaluating the occurrence of cerebral vasospasm.
Keywords：intracranial aneurysmvasospasmintracranialnomogramslogistic models
Publication Date：2025-04-15
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 488-492 )