Construction of a risk prediction model for concomitant AIS in elderly patients with cervical artery dissection based on VW-MRI findings

Li Bo; Liu Guannan; Fan Hailei

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-0126.2025.03.021

Abstract：Objective To investigate the risk factors for concomitant acute ischemic stroke(AIS)in elderly patients with cervical artery dissection(CAD)based on high-resolution vessel wall mag-netic resonance imaging(VW-MRI)features,and to construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 125 CAD patients admitted to our hospital from April 2021 to April 2024.According to complication of AIS or not,they were divided into a concomitant group(52 cases)and a non-concomitant group(73 cases).The general data and VW-MRI features were collected and analyzed in the two groups.Multivariate logistic regression analy-sis was used to identify the risk factors for AIS in CAD patients.Then a nomogram prediction model was constructed,and ROC curve was plotted to analyze its predictive efficacy.Results Sig-nificantly larger proportions of smoking history,hypertension and hyperlipidemia,and higher LDL-C level were observed in the concomitant group than the non-concomitant group(50.00％vs 30.14％,P=0.024;42.31％vs 12.33％,P=0.000;36.54％vs 10.96％,P=0.001;1.15±0.36 mmol/L vs 1.03±0.31 mmol/L,P=0.048).The incidences of multiple lesions,double lumen sign,high signal intensity of intramural hematoma,intralumenal thrombus,and severe vascular stenosis/occlusion were obviously higher(38.46％vs 16.44％,P=0.005;44.23％vs 13.70％,P=0.000;48.08％vs 16.44％,P=0.000;50.00％vs 12.33％,P=0.000;28.85％vs 5.48％,P=0.000),while that of moderate vascular stenosis was notably lower in the concomitant group than the non-concomitant group(44.23％vs 63.01％,P=0.037).Smoking history,hypertension,hy-perlipidemia,number of lesions,double lumen sign,signal intensity of intermural hematoma,in-traluminal thrombus,and severity of stenosis were risk factors for AIS occurrence in CAD pa-tients(P＜0.05,P＜0.01).For our risk prediction model based on the above risk factors,calibra-tion curve analysis showed a consistency index(C-index)of 0.856,Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test indicated X2=5.947,P=0.625,and an AUC value was 0.924(95％CI:0.833-0.961,P＜0.05),with a sensitivity and a specificity of 88.86％and 75.36％,respectively.Conclusion Smoking history,hypertension,hyperlipidemia,number of lesions,double lumen sign,signal in-tensity of intermural hematoma,intraluminal thrombus,and severity of stenosis are risk factors for AIS occurrence in CAD patients.Our nomogram model based on these factors has a good pre-dictive performance for the complication of AIS in these patients.