Effect of collateral status on prognosis in elderly patients with AIS-LVO after SWIM and construction of a prediction model for poor prognosis

Yao Guangming; Tian Tian; Hu Tiemin; Yang Zongxing; Chu Huisong; Zhang Jiwei

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-0126.2025.03.012

Abstract：Objective To explore the effect of collateral status on prognosis in elderly patients with acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion(AIS-LVO)after Solitaire stent retriever in combination with the intracranial support catheter aspiration for mechanical thrombectomy(SWIM),and construct a prediction model for prognosis.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 240 elderly AIS-LVO patients who underwent SWIM technique in our hospital be-tween February 2019 and February 2024.According to gender,age,occlusion sites and TOAST classifications,they were divided into a modeling group(180 cases)and a verification group(60 cases)in a ratio of 3∶1.Based on the results of modified Rankin scale(mRS)at 3 months after surgery,the patients in the modeling group were further divided into good prognosis subgroup(mRS score:0-2,97 cases)and poor prognosis subgroup(mRS score:3-6,83 cases).Multivari-ate logistic regression analysis was applied to evaluate the relationship between preoperative col-lateral circulation status and prognosis and to identify the influencing factors for prognosis.Then a prediction model for prognosis was constructed,and its performance was evaluated by ROC curve analysis.Results In the modeling group at 3 months of follow-up,the poor prognosis subgroup had significantly larger proportions of posterior circulation occlusion,cardiogenic embolism,ASITN/SIR grades 3-4 and hemorrhage transformation,higher NIHSS score at admission and longer interval from onset to vascular recanalization,while lower ASPECTS score at admission when compared with the good prognosis subgroup(P＜0.01).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that occlusion site,TOAST classification,NIHSS score at admission,interval from onset to vascular recanalization and hemorrhage transformation were independent risk fac-tors for poor prognosis,while ASPECTS score at admission and collateral circulation were protec-tive factors of good prognosis in the elderly AIS-LVO patients after SWIM technique(P＜0.01).Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the regression equation obtained goodness of fit in the mod-eling group(P=0.435).ROC curve analysis revealed that the AUC,sensitivity and specificity of then constructed prediction model for poor prognosis was 0.855[95％CI(0.797-0.913)],81.93％and 79.38％,respectively.The model was further verified in the data of the verification group(34 cases in good prognosis and 26 cases with poor prognosis),the AUC value,sensitivity and speci-ficity was 0.839[95％CI(0.732-0.947)],84.62％and 79.41％,respectively.Conclusion Our pre-diction model constructed based on screened risk factors for poor prognosis has good validity in patients with AIS-LVO after SWIM technique,which can identify the patients at high risk for poor prognosis.