Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for post-operative complications of carotid artery stenting
Lu Ting
Wang Jianhong
Xue Chaoyang
Fan Yu
Wen Xianxiu
Yang Jie
Abstract：Objective To investigate the risk factors for complications within 1 year after carotid artery stenting(CAS),construct a prediction model for these complications based on the identi-fied risk factors,and then validate the efficacy of the model.Methods A retrospective trial was conducted on 313 patients undergoing CAS in our hospital between January 2017 and December 2021.Based on the sequence of postoperative follow-up visits,these patients were categorized into a modeling group(235 cases)and a validation group(78 cases)in a ratio of 3∶1,and the patients of the modeling group was further assigned into non-complication(182 cases)and complication subgroups(53 cases).The general data were compared between the modeling and balidation groups,and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to identify risk factors for the risk factors for the complications,and then a prediction model was constructed using logistic scoring.ROC curve analysis was employed to evaluate the performance of the model by using AUC value.Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that non-compli-ance with antiplatelet medication(OR=65.656,95％CI:12.052-357.683,P=0.000),and abnor-mal BMI(OR=2.298,95％CI:1.023-5.163,P=0.044),cigarette history(OR=5.965,95％CI:2.527-14.079,P=0.000),and high LDL-C(OR=6.290,95％CI:1.828-21.645,P=0.004)were independent risk factors for complications occurrence within 1 year after CAS surgery.The AUC value was 0.827 for the modeling group and 0.806 for the validation group.Conclusion Non-com-pliance to antiplatelet medication,abnormal BMI,smoking history,and high LDL-C level are inde-pendent risk factors for complications occurrence within 1 year after CAS.Our developed ABCD risk prediction model demonstrates good discrimination and accuracy,and can provide valuable guid-ance for the early identification and prevention of complications following CAS surgery in clinical practice.
Keywords：carotid stenosisstrokerisk factorscarotid artery stentingrisk prediction model
Publication Date：2024-09-15
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 1035-1038 )