Establishment of a risk assessment model for long-term MACE based on global wall motion index

Wang Youpeng; Pan Yibin

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-0126.2024.06.006

Abstract：Objective To construct a risk assessment model for long-term MACE after PCI in acute myocardial infarction(AMI)patients based on global wall motion index(GWMI).Methods A to-tal of 350 AMI patients undergoing PCI in our hospital from May 2019 to May 2021 were en-rolled,and according to whether MACE occurred during follow-up period,they were divided into MACE group(82 cases)and non-MACE group(268 cases).Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the long-term risk factors,and a regression model of risk factors was constructed.Re-ceiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis was applied to evaluate and compare the pre-dictive efficacy of our risk assessment model and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events(GRACE)score for long-term MACE.Results The MACE group had significantly higher GRACE score,GWMI and B-type natriuretic peptide(BNP)level,and lower lymphocyte count,hemoglobin level and revascularization ratio than the non-MACE group(P＜0.05,P＜0.01).ROC curve analysis showed that the cutoff value of GWMI for predicting MACE was 1.04,and the AUC value was 0.747(95％CI:0.678-0.815).Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that BNP and GWMI were risk factors for MACE,while lymphocyte count,hemoglobin,and re-vascularization were protective factors for MACE(P＜0.05,P＜0.01).The regression equation for risk assessment model revealed that the AUC value in predicting MACE was 0.903(95％CI:0.862-0.952)for our risk assessment model and 0.757(95％CI:0.692-0.822)for GRACE score.Conclusion GWMI is an influencing factor for long-term MACE after PCI in AMI patients.A risk assessment model based on GWMI can effectively predict the risk of long-term MACE.