Predictive value of coronary plaque burden for heart failure in elderly patients with stable coronary heart disease

Li Baizhi; Liu Dong; He Xiaojiao

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-0126.2024.04.006

Abstract：Objective To explore the predictive value of coronary plaque burden for heart failure(HF)in elderly patients with stable coronary heart disease(CHD).Methods Clinical data of 206 patients with stable CHD admitted to our department from January 2018 to June 2020 were col-lected and retrospectively analyzed.All of them were followed up for 3 years,and then divided into a HF group(n=56)and a control group(n=150).General clinical data,total plaque burden,cal-cified plaque burden,non-calcified plaque burden and left ventricular ejection fraction were collect-ed.All patients underwent coronary artery CT angiography to measure coronary plaque burden and analyze its predictive value for HF in stable CHD patients.Results Compared with the con-trol group,the HF group had significant larger proportion of hypertension(73.2％vs 52.7％,P=0.008),and higher total plaque burden[(55.23±10.26)％vs(48.26±9.82)％,P=0.000]and non calcified plaque burden[(26.93±7.98)％vs(21.46±7.62)％,P=0.000],and decreased left ven-tricular ejection fraction[(52.97±7.85)％vs(58.02±7.91)％,P=0.000].ROC curve analysis in-dicated that the total plaque burden and non calcified plaque burden showed certain predictive val-ue for the development of HF in elderly stable CHD patients within 3 years,with an AUC value of 0.752(95％CI:0.682-0.822,P=0.000)and 0.770(95％CI:0.701-0.838,P=0.000),respec-tively.Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that non calcified plaque burden and hy-pertension were independent influencing factors for the development of HF within 3 years in eld-erly stable CHD patients(RR=0.920,95％CI:0.852-0.994,P=0.034;RR=3.117,95％CI:1.444-6.726,P=0.004).Conclusion Coronary plaque burden can serve as a predictive indicator for HF in stable CHD patients.