Trend and prediction analysis of the changing disease burden of fungal skin diseases in China from 1990 to 2021

ZHOU Zhishan; LIU Xiaocong; ZHANG Hong

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-3827.2025.01.009

Abstract：Objective To analyze the burden of fungal skin diseases in China from 1990 to 2021,and predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2050.Methods We analyzed the fungal skin diseases in China between 1990 and 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD 2021)database,focusing on describing the prevalence,incidence and disability-adjusted life years(DALY),and utilized the Bayesian model to predict the future trend of disease burden from 2022 to 2050.Results From 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized prevalence,incidence and DALY rates decreased from 4,579.55/105,14,836.44/105 and 25.60/105 in 1990 to 4,363.55/105,14,263.04/105 and 24.37/105 in 2021,respectively.However,the number of prevalence,incidence and DALY of fungal skin diseases in China increased from 50.4 million,162.4 million and 283,900 in 1990 to 69.6 million,229.4 million and 386,500 in 2021,respectively.Male had a higher burden than female.The disease burden increased with age,reaching its peak in the age group over 95,with the standardized prevalence,incidence and DALY rates of 26,001.0/105,80,813.2/105 and 124.6/105,respectively.The forecast results suggest that the number of prevalence,incidence and DALY are expected to continue to rise,reaching 84.4 million,278.7 million,and 453,000 respectively by 2050.It is worth noting that the age-standardized incidence and DALY rates for fungal skin diseases in China from 2022 to 2050 will show a slow downward trend,while age-standardized prevalence rate will show a slow upward trend.Conclusions From 1990 to 2021,the number of people affected by fungal skin diseases in China had increased by 41.21%,and it is projected to increase by 21.5%by 2050 compared to 2021.There should be a focus on the elderly population to prevent the burden from further increasing.