Analysis of Healthcare Service utilization in County-Level Hospitals Since the New Health Care Reform Based on LSTM Network
Guo Fengjiao
Zhang Jingyi
Cao Yifei
Huang Ting
Yin Wenqiang
Chen Zhongming
Hu Jinwei
Guo Hongwei
Abstract：Objective To evaluate the evolution of outpatient and inpatient service volumes in county-level hospitals from 2008 to 2023,and to forecast trends for 2024-2030 using a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network.Methods Data on outpatient visits and hospital admissions in county-level hospitals were compiled;compound annual growth rates,fixed-base growth rates,and year-on-year growth rates were calculated.Per capita health expenditure,GDP per capita,proportion of elderly population aged ≥65 years,and population density were included as control variables.An LSTM network model was constructed for forecasting.Results Since the new round of health care reform,service volumes in county-level hospitals have continued to increase but with agradual slowdown in growth,and inflection points have occurred due to external policy adjustments and public health emergencies.The regional distribution of service volumes has become more balanced.Forecasts indicate that overall service volumes will continue to grow slowly,with a structural divergence in their share of the national total.Conclusion Under the context of health care reform,county-level hospitals have entered a stage of slower aggregate growth and intensified structural differentiation.Development should shift from extensive expansion to connotative improvement,with emphasis on strengthening service capacity,enhancing institutional resilience,and advancing refined demand-side management.
Keywords：Long Short-Term Memory networkcounty-level hospitalsservice volume
Publication Date：2026-02-05
Online Publishing Date：2026-03-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 24-27,49 )